Bracketology Bubble Watch: Gonzaga is closer to the NCAA Tournament cut line than it is used to

Gonzaga has an unusual tournament résumé. No team in the at-large pool has a big of a difference between how the predictive metrics measure it than the resume quality metrics do. The predictive metrics have the Bulldogs at 11.3, while the résumé ones average out a 46.3. Gonzaga would be a No. 3 seed in one and a No. 12 seed in the other.

I had them as a No. 10 seed in Monday’s bracket before swapping them up and BYU down to accommodate the Cougars’ need for Thursday-Saturday sites.

The primary difference between the résumé quality metrics and the predictive ones is that scoring margin strongly influences the predictive ones and is not used at all in the resume quality ones. If you are ever confused about why a team is so good in one set and not the other, look up where they stand in average scoring margin. Gonzaga is No. 2 in that category, behind only Duke.

However, their actual résumé much more closely resembles the metrics that measure those. That is typically the case.

Gonzaga is 2-6 against Quad 1 teams and all eight of those teams are in the latest bracket. Only Kentucky is seeded above a No. 7 though. The Bulldogs best wins are at home to Baylor (a No. 9 seed), at San Diego State (10) and neutral over Indiana (last four in). That is not the stuff of a No. 3 seed. Gonzaga also has a couple Quad 2 losses against non-tournament teams.

I do not believe that the MOV-based metrics will save Gonzaga if their résumé does not otherwise measure up, but it is not a problem yet. The fact that is light on higher quality opponents, let alone wins, is why I still have the Bulldogs on the bubble. Until they get another shot at Saint Mary’s, they will not have a game that fixes the problems on their résumé.

Check out Palm’s latest bracket, full field of 68 and Bubble Watch at the Bracketology hub

All times ET

Bubble teams in action Monday

North Carolina

at Florida State, 7 p.m. | ESPN, fubo (Try for free)

The Tar Heels are trying to avoid damaging losses while waiting for Duke to appear on the schedule. The Seminoles have already put a dagger in the tournament hopes of SMU and Pitt at home, so they are dangerous.

Nebraska

vs. Michigan, 8 p.m. | FS1, fubo (Try for free)

Nebraska starts a finishing stretch of the season that has three out of four at home. This is the only one of those games that is résumé building. The other three are against teams that can only hurt them. It is a good opportunity to build some momentum entering the Big Ten Tournament.

Teams near the cut line

NCAA Tournament locks

Locks based on résumé: 16 | At-large bids in play: 21 | Automatic bids secured: 0 of 31

Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends based on NET rankings excludes the 2021 tournament. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of nonconference games, those rankings are not reliable enough to be considered.