Bracketology Bubble Watch: Michigan State has chance for Quad-1 win, Memphis can’t afford more bad losses

There were a lot of bad results for teams on the bubble this weekend. The good news is that the NCAA Tournament will still have 68 teams, so you cannot overreact to one loss four weeks away from Selection Sunday. Every team that lost this weekend is not necessarily irrevocably out of the field.

Let’s start with Kentucky, which lost at Georgia on Saturday for its second loss outside of Quadrant 1. It is getting harder to make a case for the Wildcats as a tournament team at the moment, and the trend is going the wrong way.

West Virginia didn’t just lose at Texas, the Mountaineers got obliterated. That is just one loss, but with a record as close to the cut line as theirs is, that could still be costly

New Mexico actually had the better day of the two state schools on Friday, but the Lobos took a third Quad 3 loss at Air Force. They still have time to overcome that, but that number of Quad 3 losses has to be maxed out.

Wisconsin gave up a second-half lead in an overtime loss to Nebraska.  The Badgers dropped to 14-10 overall and 80th in the NET.  The NET isn’t that important, but that number reflects what has been a pretty hit-or-miss season.

USC took almost the worst loss you can take in the Pac-12. The Trojans lost their second Quad 3 game vs. Oregon State, but they have a home-heavy schedule remaining and need to avoid any more pitfalls like this.

Clemson lost at North Carolina, which is actually its best loss of the season based on the quadrants. The Tigers have a weak schedule and a trio of Quad 3 and Quad 4 losses. It is going to be an uphill climb for them to get in the field. UNC, on the other hand, got a much-needed win on its home floor. That is not so much because it’s a quality win, but rather a home loss would have really hurt the Tar Heels’ chances at an at-large bid.

Mississippi State picked up a nice win at Arkansas. That is the Bulldogs’ third Quad 1 win. which is especially nice because it came on the road. For the Hogs, it’s a tough loss at home coming off the win at Kentucky earlier in the week. It really hurts to lose to fellow bubblers at home.

NCAA Tournament locks

Locks based on résumé: 8 | Bids secured: 0 | At-large spots remaining: 31

On the cut line

Check out all the teams on Palm’s Bubble Watch, the field of the 68 and the entire bracket on the Bracketology hub  

Bubble teams in action Sunday 

All references to NCAA tournament selection records and trends refer only to tournaments going back to 1994 with the exception of 2021. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of nonconference games in 2021, those rankings were not reliable enough to be considered.