Bracketology: North Carolina, Oklahoma among teams with work to do entering conference tournaments

Conference tournaments are the last chance for bubble teams to make their case to the selection committee for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. They could also take it out of the committee’s hands entirely by securing the automatic bid. There are still eleven teams that I believe could go either way around the cut line. Here is a look at where each team stands with Selection Sunday less than a week away. 

Winning four of their last five has given the Razorbacks a nice boost. The one loss was to South Carolina, though, and a win in that one would’ve kept me from writing about them now. Arkansas gets another shot at the Gamecocks in the opener of the SEC Tournament. A win there should be enough to punch their ticket.

Baylor has a decent ranking in the predictive metrics, but it’s just 18-13 overall. Only twice since 1994 has a team received an at-large bid that was not four games above .500. It seems unlikely that it would join that list, but you never know. The Bears will face Arizona State or Kansas State in their first Big 12 Tournament game.

The Broncos have a couple of good wins outside the league over Saint Mary’s and Clemson. They also have a Quad 3 loss to Washington State and a Quad 4 defeat at the hands of Boston College. Their strength of schedule is OK and their other losses are not bad, but this is a profile that could use some juice. Boise State will open the Mountain West Tournament against fellow bubbler San Diego State. A third loss to the Aztecs will probably be one too many.

Colorado State is new to the bubble after a seven-game winning streak, including victories at Boise State and a sweep of Utah State. The Rams have a couple of Quad 3 losses along with a loss at Colorado, though, so it has taken a while to get back into bracket contention. It is possible that by the time CSU gets enough wins to secure an at-large bid that they are already the automatic qualifier.

Coach Mike Woodson agreed to resign at the end of the season and sparked a resurgence in his team. The Hoosiers have been hit-or-miss most of the season, but they have won four out of five to get into the bracket for now. They are the 9-seed in the Big Ten tournament and will open against Oregon. A loss may not be fatal to their tournament hopes, but a win could be enough to get off the right side of the bubble.

The Tar Heels are a spectacularly bad 1-11 in Quad 1 games. The win is UCLA, so that’s nice, but it is hard to see a path to an at-large bid without adding to that lonely win. Unfortunately, UNC is the 5-seed in the ACC Tournament, which means that the first team it can see that helps them is Duke. The Blue Devils already have two double-digit wins over the Tar Heels.

Ohio State’s loss at Indiana to end the regular season puts it in a difficult spot. The Buckeyes are now just 17-14 overall and 11-14 vs. the top three quadrants. Those are ugly numbers, but especially that last one. Only one team has received an at-large bid that was two games below .500 against that group. None have made it that were three games below. I do not believe the committee looks at that mark specifically, but it is certainly not a stretch to believe that a team that poor against the top three quadrants is of not at-large quality.

The Sooners will face Georgia to open SEC Tournament play, and a loss to the Bulldogs may be one too many.  A relatively heavy Quad 4 schedule has left Oklahoma right at .500 against the top three quadrants, so a loss drops it below .500 against that group. On the other hand, a win should secure a spot in the field as one of twelve or thirteen conference members in the bracket. Either of those numbers would be a record for most from a league.

San Diego State 

San Diego State is living large off a nonconference win over likely No. 1 seed Houston. The Aztecs also have a nonconference win over Creighton. They swept fellow bubbler Boise State, but were swept by Utah State and UNLV.  They certainly need to avoid another loss to a non-contender, but a loss to Boise State in the Mountain West opener may be one too many.

The Mountaineers have some big hits on their ledger, including victories over Iowa State, Arizona and at Kansas. They are in the best shape of these teams, but an opening round Big 12 tournament loss to either TCU or Colorado could make selection Sunday nervy.

Xavier’s Quad 1 record is not great at 1-8, but it does have two wins over likely tournament teams in Quad 2. The Musketeers also have a couple Quad 2 losses to non-contenders. A win over Marquette would be their second best win over the season behind their victory over the Golden Eagles in Milwaukee, but they may need more than that.  

Bracketology top seeds

Check out Palm’s bracket and full field of 68 at the Bracketology hub.