The Big Ten is an enigma covered in mystery wrapped in a riddle tucked inside a paradox.
The league ranks second this season in overall strength, according to multiple metrics, and yet there is no drama at the top. Purdue (22-2, 11-2) has a three-game cushion on the rest of the conference.
It’s everything stirring below the Boilermakers that intrigues me. It’s been a minute since a power conference had such coagulation in the chase for second place. Have you taken a look at the Big Ten standings recently? Spots 2-9 could be jumbled amongst any of these eight teams a month from now when the Big Ten Tournament starts. Here’s how they’re snuggled up against each other, all within one game in the loss column:
- Indiana 8-5
- Rutgers 8-5
- Michigan 8-5
- Iowa 7-5
- Illinois 7-5
- Northwestern 7-5
- Michigan State 7-6
- Maryland 7-6
Wait, there’s more. The 10th-place team is Wisconsin, which beat 11th-place Penn State on Wednesday night. And though the Badgers don’t have a practical shot at second or third place, consider this: Wisconsin has more home games than road ones remaining, and two of the three road games are against middling Nebraska and lowly Minnesota.
Most of the teams above are also placed relatively close to each other in predictive metrics, which makes forecasting this league race over the next month even more difficult. Take Iowa for example: The Hawkeyes have won all of their games against the top half of the teams in the Big Ten but lost all their games vs. the bottom half.
I love it. I don’t know how many bids the Big Ten is going to get, nor do I know which team will finished second or fifth or even ninth. We rarely get this much inconstancy across such a large swath of a league in the middle of February. We all are gearing up for March Madness, but I’ll gladly walk about in the February Fogginess of the Big Ten for a couple of weeks first.
Hey Nineteen Power Rankings
Reminder: My rankings are not solely about whom I think is “best.” This is a weekly encapsulation of the 19 hottest, most successful and/or most *interesting* teams, combining team quality with win quality but also having no shame for recency bias and rewarding significant winning streaks. All records shown are vs. D-I competition.
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