Court Report: Rutgers could be first team to miss NCAA Tournament despite having two top-five NBA Draft picks

No team is a bigger bummer in college basketball than Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights’ most recent failure came Monday night, a 75-63 home defeat vs. Wisconsin to drop them to 8-7. It’s the latest letdown from a group that, heading into the season, had many otherwise-uninterested observers suddenly curious, for two tantalizing reasons: Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey.

Bailey and Harper, ranked No. 2 and 3 in the Class of 2024, picked a place that had never before landed five-star talent. It was a rare Cinderella-type recruiting story at the high-major level. It also ensured Rutgers would be fascinating counterprogramming to plenty of the more experienced teams succeeding on the backs of veteran players, many via the portal.

Well, we’re almost halfway through the season and the gambit has been a bust.  

After missing the previous game, Harper (21.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.5 apg) semi-returned from sickness Monday. He sat most of the second half, sapped from having the flu, and helplessly watched from the bench as Bailey (19.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg) failed to spark a comeback against a much better, much happier, much more confident Wisconsin squad.

“Those two are incredibly talented young men with very bright futures in the NBA but they don’t try hard defensively,” a high-major assistant who faced Rutgers this season told CBS Sports. “In college, any time any team is built around two freshmen and those freshmen don’t necessarily have the maturity or intangibles of what goes into winning yet, it’s going to impact your team. That’s not saying they’re bad young men, they just don’t have what it takes to win yet.”

Rutgers was supposed to be one of the It Teams this year. While few thought it would rise to the level of Final Four contender, many believed it could/would be a factor in the Big Ten and prove relevant leading into the NCAAs. Instead, Steve Pikiell is overseeing one of the most disappointing — and vexing — teams in the sport. With yet another loss Princeton home L to Kennesaw State, Rutgers isn’t even a bubble team. That’s what can happen when you change your template and rely on freshmen after having never done so before, as Pikiell is responsible for now. 

“It’s not a surprise,” the high-major assistant said. “I’m not shocked by them not being great — at all. … You don’t have to guard everyone else. From a technical preparation standpoint, you don’t have to overly defend everyone else. The game plan is: How do you stop those two guys? They average a combined five assists. They pass out of necessity.”

Bailey and Harper average 40.2 points combined, which is 10 more (30.3) than RU’s next five highest minutes-getters (Jeremiah Williams, Jordan Derkack, Lathan Sommerville, Jamichael Davis and Zach Martini). Bailey and Harper have attempted 416 shots, while the next five have taken 71 fewer (345). Programs that rarely (if ever) land blue-chip prospects typically don’t fare well after getting once-in-a-lifetime recruiting classes. Rutgers looks like the latest example.

Harper and Bailey are obviously ultra-talented dynamos, which makes this all the more frustrating. Few duos in college basketball are more statistically impactful yet, ironically, their stats don’t correspond to a lot of winning. Harper recently logged the first triple-double by an RU player since 1983, one of the best games in Rutgers history. Last week, when Harper was out against Indiana, Bailey also put up one of the school’s best performances when he had a career-high 39 points, plus eight rebounds and four blocks in a loss at Indiana.

“Dylan Harper’s a [expletive] monster off middle pick-and-roll,” an opposing coach told CBS Sports. “But they’re not hard to guard. They don’t run around. It’s not like four or five people touch the ball and feel involved. If you want to be a good offensive team you have to weaponize the guys around them.”

This isn’t LSU with Ben Simmons, Georgia with Anthony Edwards or Washington with Markelle Fultz. Those programs (which rarely land top-five players) only had one elite NBA pick. Rutgers has two. The only other team in the conversation to have two lottery picks this season is Duke. The Blue Devils are 13-2 and rank No. 1 at KenPom.com with the best defense in the country — while starting three freshmen, led by Cooper Flagg.

After years of winning in a rugged defensive mold, Rutgers’ resistance on that end of the floor has wilted. Pikiell in effect swapped out a defense-first culture for two star freshmen scorers and it’s resulted in arguably the most underwhelming story in the sport through the first half of the season.

If this keeps up, it will go from underwhelming to historic in its ineptitude. 

Presuming Harper and Bailey wind up being drafted as currently projected, if Rutgers fails to make March Madness it will be the first team ever to do so with two top-five NBA Draft picks in the same season. They’d also be the first school in the modern era to sign two top-five high school prospects and fail to qualify for the Big Dance. Expanding it further, according to Sports Reference, only three teams ever have not gone dancing despite having two (or more) players as top-10 picks that same year. If you think it’s happened in the past 10-15 years, as one-and-done culture became a defining character trait of college basketball, you’d be wrong. (One example is 2012-13 Kentucky, which did have two top-10 picks on the team but they weren’t drafted in the same year. Nerlens Noel was in the 2013 draft, while Willie Cauley-Stein wasn’t taken until 2015.) 

The only three teams to have two top-10 picks in the same year and not make the tournament all came long before the 64-team tournament era, with all three being good-to-great teams. Rutgers is in a category unto itself.

• 1972-73 Minnesota (Jim Brewer, No. 2; Ron Behagen, No. 7; went 21-5, finished second in Big Ten)
• 1953-54 Western Kentucky (Tom Marshall, No. 8; Jack Turner, No. 9; went 29-3 and played in the NIT)
• 1952-53 Seton Hall (Walter Dukes, No. 2; Richie Regan, No. 7; the 31-2 Pirates also played in the NIT) 

Typically, if you’ve got super-high-end NBA talent at more than one position, you’re qualifying for the Big Dance — with plenty of room to spare. That’s not the case in Piscataway. Rutgers is as compelling as it is oftentimes underwhelming.

“If they did miss the tournament, it wouldn’t be due to Xs and Os,” a Big Ten coach told CBS Sports. “Steve and his staff know how to coach. It would be more to do with age and returning experience of the roster. Before the portal there would have been multiple returners that know their system and have competed in the Big Ten. (Cliff) Omoruyi is a perfect example. Having some Big Ten-experienced players, with knowledge of how they do things at Rutgers alongside them, would allow their maturation to be a bit more seamless into learning what it takes to win in college basketball at the Power Five level.”

Whiffing on the tourney would be more than a missed opportunity; it would leave an unfortunate taint on Bailey’s and Harper’s fleeting one and only year with Rutgers.

“I think Harper is about as good as it gets,” another coach who faced Rutgers this season told CBS Sports. “Both draft potential and college impact. But Bailey is inconsistent. He’s an unwilling passer and a disinterested defender and his shot selection is so bad that if he isn’t making ridiculous shots they are in trouble. They don’t have enough shooting around those guys. And the guys that can shoot are bad defenders. The guys that do defend can’t shoot.”

You watch Rutgers and you see a team void of identity other than being The Team That Was Supposed To Be Good. Who is the leader? Are Harper and Bailey buying into Pikiell’s playbook? Watching Rutgers play, it’s hard to make that case. The supporting cast has to play a bigger role as soon as possible to give this team a shot. It’s not over, but the change has to be immediate, starting with Thursday’s home chance against 11-4 Purdue. 

“They’re talented enough to turn it around too,” one assistant said. “I’m not sure how much fun guys are having on the team. It’s hard to win when guys aren’t having fun. This can’t be easy for Pikiell.”

Tennessee was destroyed by Florida. Here’s what history shows about the NCAAT fates of the last undefeated team

We only made it until Jan. 7 before the final unbeaten lost, and boy did Tennessee lose Tuesday. Florida’s 73-43 bludgeoning of the Vols was the third-largest margin of victory against a No. 1 team ever. The blowout was so surprising, it might recalibrate some folks’ opinions on UT, but keep in mind 2013-14 UConn wasn’t nearly as good as these Vols seem to be, and that group also lost a game by 30-plus before eventually winning it all.

As for losing the last unbeaten before the midway point of the season, that’s become the trend. For a long time, in most years, we’d at least get to the back half of January before the last team finally got gotten. In recent years, the days surrounding New Year’s Day has become the landing zone for the final undefeated to fall.

Margin aside, here’s my semi-annual refresher on what the data shows for the team that takes its first loss last. Tennessee has some of the best odds to win it all in 2025. Going back to 1991-92, five teams in the past 33 seasons to be the last unbeaten have gone on to win the national title. That’s 15% — which is a healthy shot vs. the rest of the sport.

The last undefeated squad almost always bears out to be very good, with a solid probability of proving to be great by the end of the season.

If you go back to 1977, the year after IU ran the table, Kentucky in 1978 is another team that won the title in the same season as it was the last to lose. 

Since 1991-92 …

• The average record of the final unbeaten before taking its first defeat: 18-0
• Since ’91-92, the average date for the final undefeated to fall: Feb. 4
• Five of the past eight seasons have seen the last unbeaten fall prior to Jan. 13
• First losses come away from the last unbeaten’s home venue approximately 75% of the time
• Encouraging: Not accounting for 2020 and SMU’s ineligible season, 12 of the 36 teams to lose last on the latest date (33.3%) reached the Final Four
• Excluding 2020, only two teams have been the final to lose and not qualify for the NCAA Tournament: Clemson in 2007 and New Mexico in 2023 (2016 SMU would have made it if not for a postseason ban)
• Removing Clemson, New Mexico and SMU from the equation, the average number of NCAA Tournament wins since 1992 for the last teams to lose is three. Only five times did a team to lose last deepest into the season fail to win a tournament game. The most recent was USC in 2022
• The most common exit for the last unbeaten team is the Sweet 16 (nine times)
• Average final record for the last unbeaten team: 30-5

Tennessee doesn’t chart as the best team in college basketball, but it’s still on the short list of best teams. Rick Barnes’ issue for most of his career has been inadequacy in March. His teams normally, though not always, fail to perform to seed expectation. Last year’s team met it: No. 2 Tennessee fell to 1-seed Purdue in the Elite Eight. Now we’ll see if the rigors of maybe the toughest conference ever in college basketball strengthen or reduce Tennessee’s will to be championship-worthy in March.

Ranked teams to be wary of in March

If Tennessee’s loss to Florida makes you pause, I get it, but there are other teams with a number next to their names that are more obvious candidates for suspicion. Almost every January we get a team or three that work their way to good records and sit well-perched in the AP poll despite disguising their quality. For instance, a year ago, Kansas was ranked No. 3 with a 13-1 record. But predictive metrics at that stage universally had KU outside of the top 10, slotting the Jayhawks anywhere between 13th and 20th despite 60 Associated Press voters logging them collectively as one of the three best teams in college basketball.

Turns out, as often is the case, that the predictive models were correct. Kansas, which had little depth, wound up with a No. 5 seed and failed to make the Sweet 16, barely beating Samford in the first round. That in mind — and acknowledging that circumstances are obviously different on a team-by-team basis — here are a few teams whose rankings in the AP poll this week don’t correspond with the likes of KenPom, Torvik, EvanMiya, the NET, etc. You might want to fade ’em come March.

No. 15 Oregon (13-2): 27 at KenPom, 31 at Miya, 32 in BPI 
No. 17 Oklahoma (13-1): 42 at KenPom, 46 at Miya, 51 at Torvik
No. 19 Memphis (12-3): 30 at Miya, 35 in BPI, 38 at Torvik

Oregon’s biggest issue is the nitty gritty of its its tempo-free statistical profile has it ranking between 79 and 193 in all measures/percentages.

For Oklahoma, it’s non-con schedule was among the worst in the sport, plus its defensive rebounding is maybe the worst in the SEC, as is its 2-point field goal defense (54.5%).

And Memphis’ problem is ranking near the bottom of all projected NCAA tourney teams in turnover rate, in addition to losing the rebounding battle in almost every game it’s played.

@ me

Find me on Bluesky or  X/Twitter and drop a Q anytime!

Wisconsin was picked 12th by Big Ten media in the preseason but it won’t be anywhere near that seed come Big Ten tourney time. Blackwell has been one of my favorite sophomore surprises. The 6-foot-4 combo guard with cool feel is averaging 15.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists and put up 53 points in UW’s most recent two games against Iowa and Rutgers. Tonje’s been a portal plus on a level few expected, but Blackwell’s ascension has been the biggest factor in Bucky looking like an early season Big Ten contender, particularly after scoring 116 points last week and setting a Big Ten record with 21 3-pointers in the domination over Iowa. Wisconsin’s cracked 100 twice this season, the first time that’s happened since 1995-96.

This is in reference to Minnesota, which blew a potential home win vs. Ohio State Monday night by fouling up two with less than six seconds remaining in overtime. (The Gophers went on to lose 89-88 in 2OT.) The Gophers, who were pummeled with portal losses, are comfortably the worst team in the Big Ten a year after Ben Johnson got this program to 19 wins. A change might be inevitable. 

I think North Carolina works its way to a single-digit seed (and did before Tuesday’s cruise-control win over SMU) but I get your point. If I had to guess the mid-major team that gets closest to an at-large bid but ultimately gets shipped to the NIT … Boise State. (Or VCU.)

My biggest “buy” team that’s ranked lower than I think it should be is Dayton. The Flyers are 11-4 with two Quad 1 wins, have no Q3/4 losses and probably will wind up winning the Atlantic 10 and get a single-digit seed again. The coaching and roster seem too sturdy. Dayton ranks outside the top 50 in all predictive mainstream metrics but I think will be between 25-35 come Selection Sunday.

I have not. Just about every year someone asks me what my gotta-get-to spots are, and almost every year I’m able to check one off the list. I could EASILY give you 20 spots I’m still anxious to cover a game at, but my current top five college basketball arenas I most want to get to:

1. The Pit (New Mexico)
2. State Farm Center (Illinois)
3. Hilton Coliseum (Iowa State)
4. The Barn (Minnesota)
5. The Spectrum (Utah State)

Norlander’s news + nuggets

• Georgia’s 82-69 win over Kentucky has the Bulldogs at 13-2, their best start since 2001-02 (also the last time they won an NCAA Tournament game).
• I thought it was quietly critical for Indiana to beat Rutgers at home and then win over Penn State (at The Palestra) in the past two games. Losing either of those would’ve been a troubling hiccup to start Big Ten play in 2025, but instead IU is 12-3 heading into its home game vs. USC and showing it can win without Malik Reneau (who will be back shortly). Oumar Ballo and Mackenzie Mgbako each flourished. Some frustrating losses to come, but this team is making the NCAA Tournament.
• Trivia Time! With Tennessee losing, do you know who holds the longest winning streak? It’s UC San Diego. The Tritons (13-2) have won 11 in a row and will challenge UC Irvine in the Big West.
• Good note from college basketball statistician Jared Berson: Texas hosting No. 2 Auburn and No. 1 Tennessee in successive games this week marks the first time since 1997 that a team played the top two teams back-to-back in the same week. Back then, it was Missouri that split against No. 1 Kansas and No. 2 Wake Forest. Longhorns were too haphazard Tuesday vs. Auburn, now they need to shape up against a ticked off Vols team in a few days. Uh-oh?
• Tuesday was well-stocked with intriguing matchups, but the result that I think is a sign of things to come: Arizona pushing past West Virginia with little resistance in a 75-56 victory. ICYMI, I wrote about the Wildcats recently and their pivot into 2025.
• Take the time to read this story from The Athletic. Writer Sam Blum shadowed Mississippi Valley State for three days back in November (but the story just pubbed) to get a tangible idea of what it means to be a low-major HBCU trying to hang on in the rigors of Division I. 
• Things are dire for the ACC: 12 of the 18 teams in the conference rank worse than 73rd in the NET. Even going back to the problematic era of the RPI, I can’t ever remember a power conference having so much dead weight.
• Our Isaac Trotter trots out the national title contenders and stacks them by tiers. He’s got 11 on the top shelf.
• The Heat Check’s Brian Rauf has quietly been a consistently good college hoops writer for a few years now. Check out his latest that puts Kam Jones and Eric Dixon’s outstanding seasons into perspective. 
• Things are concerning enough for Syracuse that someone on staff (gotta be an alum, right?) at The Onion is chiming in. 
• We’re a week away from the midpoint of the season. That in mind, my top five for national coach of the year as of this morning, in no order, are: Bruce Pearl, TJ Otzelberger, Mark Pope, Jerrod Calhoun and Rick Barnes.