Hot streak or cold spell? NCAA Tournament temperature check for 12 bubble teams as conference tournaments loom

A cursory glance at Xavier’s NCAA Tournament resume exemplifies the problem with putting too much stock in the quad system. While dividing out a team’s wins and losses into quadrants is a great way to get an overview of what it has accomplished, it’s a wide-lens view. 

When you start talking about the final at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament, a closer inspection is warranted. For Xavier, that closer inspection illustrates how the Musketeers have accomplished more than their 1-9 Quad 1 record suggests.

In fact, with a bit of massaging in the NET rankings, Xavier would be getting more credit for what it accomplished over the past week. It crushed a quality Creighton team 83-61 at home but was only credited with a Quad 2 win because Creighton is No. 37 in the NET, and the Quad 1 cutoff for a home game is 30. Then, the Musketeers handled Butler 71-58 on Wednesday but again only got credit for a Quad 2 victory because Butler is just a few spots outside the NET cutoff of 75 for Quad 1 road games. 

With wins over Creighton, Marquette and UConn, the Musketeers have three victories over NCAA Tournament teams. That separates Xavier from some of its company in the race for the final at-large bids. 

North Carolina and Wake Forest each have just one victory over an NCAA Tournament lock (UCLA for the Tar Heels and Michigan for the Demon Deacons). Both have also suffered Quad 3 losses, while Xavier has not.

As we enter the final weekend of the regular season, here’s the temperature check for some of the sport’s most prominent bubble teams.

🔥🔥🔥 = trending aggressively in the right direction
🔥🔥 = playing well
🔥 = not messing it up
🧊 = cooling off
🧊🧊 = moving in the wrong direction
🧊🧊🧊 = careening off the rails

Bracketology projection: No. 11 seed (Last Four In)
Record: 22-8 (14-5 Mountain West)

Boise State has been on a tear since falling to 13-7 (5-4 Mountain West) with a loss at Colorado State on Jan. 22. Entering Friday’s rematch with the Rams, the Broncos have won nine of their past 10. If Boise can get revenge on CSU, it should feel decent about its NCAA Tournament hopes entering the Mountain West Tournament. Between early season wins over Clemson and Saint Mary’s and the recent surge, the Broncos have done a nice job atoning for a January stretch of four losses in six games.

Bracketology projection: No. 10 seed
Record: 19-11 (7-10 SEC)

Georgia is all the way back from the dead after winning its third straight game at South Carolina on Tuesday. The Bulldogs’ revival began with an upset of Florida last week and continued with a convincing road takedown of Texas last Saturday. All 11 of Georgia’s losses are against teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament, and coach Mike White’s club is finally proving that it should be among those dancing as well.

Xavier🔥🔥🔥

Bracketology projection: First Four Out
Record: 20-10 (12-7 Big East)

The Musketeers upped their winning streak to six with a 91-78 victory at Butler on Wednesday. That followed an 83-61 win over Creighton on Saturday, which falls just outside of Quad 1 for now. Xavier is just 1-9 in Quad 1, but it is 8-1 in Quad 2 and has wins over three NCAA Tournament locks in Marquette, UConn and Creighton. Sean Miller’s club has rated as a top-25 outfit over the past two months.

VCU🔥🔥

Bracketology projection: No. 11 seed
Record: 25-5 (15-2 A10)

VCU is riding a nine-game winning streak into a high-stakes finale with Dayton on Friday. If the Rams complete a season sweep of the Flyers, it could give them enough breathing room to withstand a loss in the A10 Tournament and make the Big Dance as an at-large. But given how dominant VCU has been during league play, the safe bet is that it cruises through the bracket to claim an automatic bid. 

North Carolina🔥🔥

Bracketology projection: First Four Out
Record: 20-11 (13-6 ACC)

North Carolina had no choice after falling to 14-11 (7-6 ACC) with an 85-65 loss at Clemson on Feb. 10; the Tar Heels needed to win their next six games to recover any realistic at-large hopes entering this Saturday’s showdown with No. 2 Duke. Mission accomplished. UNC won all of them, and five of those victories came by double-digits. The Tar Heels have rated as college basketball’s fourth-most efficient offense since the Clemson loss. The defense remains iffy, and the Tar Heels still have work to do. But if nothing else, they are playing with confidence again.

Bracketology projection: No. 11 seed
Record: 18-12 (7-10 SEC)

Arkansas’ lone loss in its past four games was a hideous 72-53 defeat at South Carolina. It was so bad that coach John Calipari said he never even watched the tape. “I just said, look, it was a dud. Next game.” The Razorbacks returned to their winning ways with an impressive 90-77 victory at Vanderbilt on Tuesday and are now 6-4 over their past 10, even while dealing with injuries to top scorers Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero.

Bracketology projection: No. 10 seed
Record: 18-12 (10-9 Big 12)

Consecutive victories over Oklahoma State and TCU have done nothing to suggest that Baylor deserved its No. 8 preseason ranking and is suddenly going to find a championship-level gear. But the Bears have steadied the ship after dropping three straight games to end February. Beating the Horned Frogs on the road counts as a Quad 1 win for now, and that will certainly help on Selection Sunday.

Bracketology projection: No. 11 seed (Last Four in)
Record: 20-8 (13-6 Mountain West)

A 74-67 loss at UNLV on Tuesday leaves San Diego State in an uncomfortable spot entering Saturday’s regular-season finale against Nevada. The Aztecs are just 2-2 over their past four and need a win to restore some momentum entering the postseason. SDSU is angling for a fifth straight NCAA Tournament appearance under coach Brian Dutcher, but it doesn’t have much wiggle room left.

Texas🧊

Bracketology projection: Next Four Out
Record: 17-13 (6-11 SEC)

Texas was on life support before an overtime win at Mississippi State on Tuesday. The Longhorns have still dropped six of their past eight and also tried to give away the Mississippi State game in regulation and overtime. But the Longhorns overcame their own blunders to keep their at-large hopes in a somewhat tenable position entering Saturday’s regular-season finale against rival Oklahoma.

Cincinnati🧊🧊

Bracketology projection: Next Four Out
Record: 17-13 (7-12 Big 12)

Losing at home to Kansas State — like Cincinnati did Wednesday — is a non-serious outcome for a team with NCAA Tournament hopes. The Bearcats have now dropped four of their last six and are likely going to need a strong showing in the Big 12 Tournament to go dancing.

Wake Forest🧊🧊🧊

Bracketology projection: First Four Out
Record: 20-10 (12-7 ACC) 

The Demon Deacons could have salvaged a February of carnage by upsetting Duke on Monday. Alas, Wake Forest was uncompetitive in a 93-60 loss and has dropped four of its past six. It appears Wake will need a strong ACC Tournament run in order to qualify for its first Big Dance since 2017. For a team that was once 15-4 (7-1 ACC), the comedown has been brutal.

Bracketology projection: First Four Out
Record: 17-13 (7-12 Big Ten)

Nebraska has dropped four straight and five of its past six following a double-overtime loss at Ohio State on Tuesday. The past three defeats have come by a combined margin of seven points, which just adds to the misery. In February, the Cornhuskers appeared to be closing in on consecutive at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in over 30 years. But if it’s going to happen now, Nebraska will likely need to make some noise in the Big Ten Tournament.