North Carolina, Arizona land razor-close wins in crucial road games and maybe changed their seasons

North Carolina and Arizona. One a blue blood, the other as close as you can get to that distinction without actually owning the label. Regardless: Two of the 13 most important and successful programs in college basketball history. When they’re really good the sport feels stronger, more appealing.

This season, neither has been good — certainly not consistent — despite that being the expectation heading in. In October, they were both honored with top-10 status in the preseason AP Top 25 after earning top seeds last March.

Through the first 60 days of the season, they’d combined to go 15-11, turning up the two most disappointing nonconference tours of any schools in the preseason rankings. North Carolina had an awful habit of slow starts (trailing considerably in the first half of almost every game), while Arizona oddly no-showed in every battle against a good opponent, having not defeated a top-60 team, going 0-5 in those chances.

Saturday provided possibility amidst the backdrop of what was, going in, the arguably the best Saturday slate so far. North Carolina and Arizona found themselves forced into the background on a day littered with plenty of highly anticipated affairs. Their games didn’t seem to matter nearly as much when pitted against the pulpy potential of: No. 6 Florida vs. No. 10 Kentucky, No. 25 Baylor vs. No. 3 Iowa State, No. 23 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Tennessee, No. 4 Duke at two-loss SMU, No. 15 UCLA at two-loss Nebraska, and No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 5 Alabama.

But I’d argue none of those games on this day had more urgency and big-picture importance than the Tar Heels’ test at Notre Dame and the Wildcats’ tilt at No. 16 Cincinnati. With UNC entering the day at 8-6, and Arizona at 7-5, both faced sticky road tests, the kinds of opportunity on the schedule that can give renewed life in conference season … or reinforce disenchantment and set a gloomy tone for a long league slate awaiting. (A nod to Louisville as well, which beat UNC earlier this week and then thumped Virginia on the road by 20 Saturday, but unlike the Heels and Wildcats, Pat Kelsey’s Cardinals are yet to be ranked.)

The Heels and Wildcats stared down their opportunities and both narrowly won (UNC 74-73, Arizona 72-67) giving their seasons hope in what would have otherwise been huge blows to their respective NCAA Tournament chances. (It’s far too early to concern ourselves with bracketology forecasts, but still: losses by either on Saturday would’ve kicked either out of the field for now.)

These were the two most important results of the day in college basketball.

North Carolina’s win came first, on CBS, its latest close-shave outcome and just the third defeat of a top-100 opponent for Hubert Davis’ program this season.

The route to victory wasn’t easy, as there was also a pregame plot twist. UNC found out shortly before tip that Notre Dame’s best player (Markus Burton) was back after missing more than a month. The Fighting Irish aren’t a tournament team this year, but they’re much improved from a season ago and they’re all the more dangerous with Burton available to ball, which he did to the tune of 23 off-the-bench points. 

Yet Carolina somehow pulled it out. It did it the only way it knows how to wind wins these days: dramatically. Sophomore point guard Elliott Cadeau’s and-1 3-pointer (fouled by Matt Allocco) with 4.8 seconds left was the 17th lead change of the game. It provided a Houdini-like escape for UNC and, critically, helped the 9-6 Tar Heels avoid a 1-2 start in a middling ACC.

Meanwhile, UNC freshman Ian Jackson has become the team’s go-to scorer. He had 23-plus for the fourth straight game, finishing with a college-best 27 points. It’s the most by a Tar Heels frosh since Cole Anthony had 28 against Wake Forest in 2020. With four consecutive games of 20 or more points, Jackson is also the first Tar Heel to do that since Tyler Hansbrough in the 2005-06 season. A highly touted recruit is turning into a special player.

The Tar Heels are a vexing team, but damn if they aren’t in a lot of ultra-watchable games. Saturday was their seventh this season decided within two possessions. It’s obvious that, for the second time in three years, UNC was vastly overrated in the preseason. But I believe this team is talented enough and the ACC is weak enough that they’ll fight through and avoid the calamity of 2022 (missing the NCAAs altogether). 

High drama, unlikely outcomes, fun basketball but erratic all the same. Few teams are as irresistible, for reasons good and bad, as North Carolina. 

Arizona (8-5) isn’t that way.

The Cats haven’t been nearly as appealing or as threatening as UNC. Saturday’s win at Cincinnati was U of A’s first win on the road and just its second win away from home — but a fourth straight win, too. The Wildcats were strong enough to get up by 19 in Cincy’s house at one point, which is encouraging, but also let that lead melt away entirely and flirted with their worst collapse under Tommy Lloyd.

These guys desperately needed a result to make them believe this season could amount to something substantial, because there hasn’t been a lot of evidence otherwise. Think about it this way … the Big 12 has a clear-cut No. 1 in Iowa State and a close No. 2 in Houston. Who’s gonna be No. 3? Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Texas Tech, BYU, Cincinnati: good teams with flaws and still figuring a lot out. Arizona’s talented enough to join that group, if not eventually ascend within it, provided they can find a toughness groove (and much better 3-point shooting, sheesh) in the next couple of weeks. 

It was almost mandatory that Arizona win Saturday; after the first three years of regular-season dominance under Lloyd, few thought that’s where the team would be in the first week of January. The Wildcats got 15 points from Jaden Bradley, 14 from Caleb Love, and what’s this here? Fourteen more from freshman forward Carter Bryant off the bench? A nice development. Heading into Saturday I wanted to know if Arizona would rise in this moment against a Cincinnati team that hasn’t had to play with a target on its back much under Wes Miller. It wasn’t pretty, but it did it.

Did Saturday provide clarity for Carolina and Arizona? I can’t say that. It gave respite. It gave wins that will be vital when we get to March. A loss for either would have spelled true panic. Instead, some reason to believe and a chance to change their futures, provided they can be more like this and less like what we saw for most of November and December.