Livescore
The NBA regular season resumes tonight, meaning we have one of the fuller slates of sports we’ve had in a while, though I don’t have any NBA picks for you in the letter tonight. I’m sorry, but as I’ve gone over before, the NBA regular season has become nearly impossible to figure out. It’s not as “stable” as college basketball due to load management and a number of other factors.
Still, even if we aren’t betting on it, it’s nice to have the league back in action. What’s even nicer are these stories, which you should read becuase reading is fundamental.
OK, let’s make some money.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
No. 21 Northwestern at Illinois p.m. | TV: Big Ten Network
Latest Odds:
Under 136.5
- Key Trend: The under is 6-0 in Northwestern’s last six, and 10-1 in Illinois’ last 11 against teams with a winning record.
- The Pick: Under 136 (-110)
Given Northwestern’s lack of historic success as a basketball program, it feels safe to say that the 2022-23 Northwestern Wildcats are the best team in the school’s history. Northwestern’s only made one NCAA Tournament (2017), and it went 60-60, including 26-71 in the Big Ten, in the five seasons after that. It enters tonight’s game at 20-7 overall, 11-5 in the Big Ten, and ranked in the AP Poll. And while this is a surprise, none of it is a fluke.
If three straight wins over Purdue, Indiana and Iowa don’t prove that, I don’t know what will. Sure, the games were all at home, but Northwestern isn’t supposed to beat teams like Purdue or Indiana anywhere. And the Iowa win was a 20-point beatdown. The Wildcats are legit, and they’ve done it with defense.
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Northwestern’s not a team built to outscore you, nor does it try. Boo Buie is its most consistent threat offensively, and Chase Audige is capable of getting hot from three, but overall, the offense is poor. The team’s eFG% ranks 306th nationally. What the Wildcats due is slow the game down, limit possessions, and pack the paint defensively. If you’re going to beat them, you must do it from outside the arc.
That’s what makes this a tricky matchup for Illinois. Illinois shoots 55.9% from two (17th nationally) and 31.5% from three (305th). In the first meeting, Northwestern beat the Illini as Illinois went 8-for-28 from three, and the Wildcats got to the free throw line an astounding 40 times.
I don’t expect Northwestern to get 40 free throws on the road, nor do I expect the Wildcats will go 7-for-18 from three as they did in the first meeting. However, with the status of Illinois’ leading scorer Terrence Shannon (concussion), still in the air, I’m not sure how effective Illinois will be offensively itself.
The most likely outcome of this game is an ugly, defensive battle. It strikes me as a “first team to 60” wins situation, and there’s no guarantee either team even gets to 60.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model doesn’t see much value in the game, but SportsLine handicapper Micah Roberts disagrees, and has put in a play on the spread.
💰The Picks
🏀 College Basketball
Memphis at Wichita State, 7 p.m | TV: ESPN2
Latest Odds:
Under 149.5
The Pick: Under 147.5 (-110) — These teams played last month, and it was in this newsletter I explained why you simply had to take the Under 141 that night. The game finished 88-78, finishing 25 points over the total. I don’t care. We weren’t wrong that night, and we aren’t wrong tonight. That night, a Wichita State team that ranks 345th nationally from three at 29.7% shot 37.5% from three and made 19 free throws. A Memphis team that shoots 33.7% from three (201st nationally) was 11-for-21 (52.4%!!) from three and made 17 free throws.
I do not expect a repeat performance. Memphis is a good offensive team, but it shoots the ball much better at home than on the road. It’s also a team that doesn’t shoot from three very often, which is where you want to attack Wichita State defensively. So Memphis’ poorer shooting on the road and overall poor shooting from three makes it hard for me to imagine we see a game that resembles the first meeting.
UTSA at Florida Atlantic, 7 p.m | TV: ESPN+
Latest Odds:
Florida Atlantic Owls
-17.5
The Pick: Florida Atlantic -17.5 (-110) — This could be the wrong place at the wrong time for UTSA, as Florida Atlantic is coming off a loss in its last game against Middle Tennessee. It was FAU’s third loss of the season and its second in conference play. The Owls have had a week off to think about it and will want to make a statement tonight.
Enter a UTSA team that’s only 8-20 on the season and 2-15 in Conference USA. The Roadrunners are one of the worst defensive teams in the country, and they aren’t much better offensively. In fact, you can argue they’re the worst team in the league at both ends, and they were thoroughly outclassed in the first meeting between these teams. FAU won that game 83-64, and it was in San Antonio. It’s not difficult to imagine the Owls can improve upon that result at home.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: I don’t have any NBA plays tonight, but the Projection Model has an A-graded play for tonight’s game between the Cavaliers and Nuggets.
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