Texas A&M upsets Auburn: Why Tigers remain projected as No. 1 overall seed in NCAA Tournament despite loss

No. 22 Texas A&M snapped its four-game losing streak with a statement on Tuesday as the Aggies knocked off No. 1 Auburn 83-72 for their first-ever win over a top-ranked opponent. It made for a memorable final home game for eight A&M seniors who were honored on the floor at Reed Arena before the game.

Despite the upset loss, the outcome will not move Auburn from its place as the projected No. 1 overall seed in Jerry Palm’s NCAA Tournament Bracketology. With a 16-3 mark in Quad 1 games and a combined 21-3 record in Quad 1 and 2 games, the Tigers, now 27-3 overall and 15-2 in conference play, have already clinched the outright SEC title and maintain a sizable edge on challengers such as Duke, Houston and Tennessee for the No. 1 overall spot in the Big Dance.

Even with a loss to No. 7 Alabama in the regular season finale on Saturday, Auburn would still remain the projected No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA Tournament, according to Palm. However, the result could open the door for No. 2 Duke to steal some votes for the top spot in the AP poll after Auburn was a unanimous No. 1 on Monday.

The Aggies (21-9, 10-7 SEC) rode the emotion of senior night to an early 12-2 lead and never trailed while returning to form with a barrage of offensive rebounds. Auburn never cut its deficit to a single possession in the second half on an off night for National Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome. 

Auburn’s star center, who exited briefly in the first half after appearing to injure his shoulder, logged just eight points and struggled on the glass against A&M’s relentless rebounding attack. The Aggies entered at No. 1 nationally in offensive rebounds per game at 15.9 and pulled down 24 on Tuesday, converting them into an 29-11 edge in second-chance points.

Trap spot for Auburn

This game was the definition of a trap spot for Auburn. After clinching the SEC crown on Saturday with its first win at Kentucky since 1988, the Tigers faced a quick turnaround against an A&M team desperate to halt a four-game losing streak and defend its home floor. With the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament locked up and the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament easily within grasp, the Tigers flailed from the start. 

Another potential reason for the uncharacteristically poor effort: a huge Saturday lies ahead. The Tigers will have their own senior day at Neville Arena against rival Alabama. In that sense, this was both a letdown game because of what happened last Saturday and a lookahead spot because of what’s to come this weekend.

Ultimately, the loss isn’t a killer in any sense for Auburn. In fact, it may supply coach Bruce Pearl with the ammunition he needs to light a fire under his team. There are few better motivators in the coaching profession, and an ugly loss will give Pearl plenty of material at practice with the postseason looming.

The A&M roller coaster

Was Tuesday’s win a fluke, or was it a sign that Texas A&M is back and a force to be reckoned with following a four-game losing streak? Don’t be surprised if it’s the latter. The Aggies have made a habit of rallying from poor stretches under sixth-year coach Buzz Williams.

Last season, A&M lost five in a row during February but immediately rebounded with a five-game winning streak to claim a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Once there, the Aggies took No. 1 seed Houston to overtime in the second round before falling in one of the most thrilling games of the first weekend.

In 2023, A&M started 6-5 with losses to Murray State and Wofford before rallying to finish 15-3 in the SEC. In 2022, the Aggies lost eight games in a row during SEC play before winning seven straight to reach the SEC tournament title game. Though the Aggies got snubbed from the NCAA Tournament that season, they reached the NIT final.

The moral of the story is that you can never count out Texas A&M under Williams. The Aggies have a history of rallying from horrendous stretches to go on long winning streaks. Tuesday’s win may have been the start of the Aggies’ latest resurgence.