Tomorrow’s Top 25 Today: Auburn remains No. 1 in projected poll, but Alabama lurks ahead of rivalry clash

Each week I project how AP voters will react to the week’s results in men’s college basketball by guessing one day ahead of time how the votes will ultimately be tabulated when posted every Monday. Rarely have we gotten drama this season at the top because the top teams — Auburn, Tennessee, Duke among them — have been so consistent. But theoretically we could have drama this week after No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Duke both fell Saturday.

I project the fallout Monday will be somewhat anticlimactic for those itching to see chaos. 

I checked the history to see what sort of precedent voters have set on this front — taking into account, of course that each situation is different — and what I found is that Auburn will likely remain No. 1. In 2022, Gonzaga, then 24-2 and the unanimous No. 1 team, lost on a Saturday but remained No. 1 in the next AP poll — only losing its unanimous status. In 2023, Purdue, then 22-1 and the unanimous No. 1, lost on a Sunday and remained No. 1 in the next AP poll — also losing only its unanimous status.

The only exception in the last few years came in 2023-24 when UConn, then 24-2 and the unanimous No. 1, suffered a loss and fell two spots in the next poll. That fall came as Houston and Purdue had comparable résumés at the time. 

No other team has a comparable résumé to Auburn — which has a college hoops-leading 12 Quad 1 wins — at this time. That’s why I’m projecting Auburn, the No. 1 team in college hoops for four consecutive weeks and the unanimous No. 1 for three consecutive weeks, will remain at No. 1 on Monday — likely only losing its unanimous status. 

Alabama may earn first-place votes as it moves up, but I find it unlikely any team supplants the Tigers. Maybe I’ll be wrong. But there’s history to suggest Auburn will remain No. 1. And it’s what I’d do if I had a vote.

Below is how I project they will decide on the Auburn decision and the ranking of every other team in the Top 25 poll when it is released Monday.

Projected to drop out: Illinois