Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Playoffs AFC Championship Prediction Game Preview

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Playoffs AFC Championship prediction, game preview, odds, how to watch, Sunday, January 29

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Playoffs AFC Championship Prediction Game Preview

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs How To Watch

Date: Sunday, January 29
Game Time: 6:30 ET
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
How To Watch: CBS
Record: Cincinnati Bengals (12-4), Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
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Why Cincinnati Bengals Will Win the AFC Championship

Really, how hurt is Patrick Mahomes?

He’s Patrick Mahomes and this is the AFC Championship, so he’s going to play, but there’s a difference between gutting it out on a high ankle sprain and being able to adequately move.

You know that football cliché – are you injured or hurt? Mahomes is injured.

Of course he can still throw, and the offense should be able to tweak and adapt around what he’ll be able to do, but when it comes to his magical improvisational ability that makes him so special, that’s going to be limited.

That, and even if he’s at 100%, Cincinnati is a problem.

The Bengals won the regular season meeting in Week 13 – without Joe Mixon – because it controlled the clock. Joe Burrow was brilliant on third downs, the ground game was good enough with Samaje Perine, and the defense came up with the one big takeaway it had to have in the 27-24 victory.

But that was when Mahomes was at full-go.

Kansas City’s offense is obviously great, but it doesn’t have Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengal receivers. Travis Kelce is amazing, and the running game works, but 15 is the brilliant conductor who orchestrates it all. Chad Henne can step in, but …

Again, Cincinnati is a tough out no matter what.

The defense dialed it up a few notches in the stunningly dominant win over Buffalo. Nothing is rattling Burrow, the offensive line that’s so banged up blasted away for the running game, and yeah, there was one massive chip on this team’s shoulder.

However …

– Why Kansas City Chiefs Will Win
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NEXT: Why Kansas City Chiefs Will Win the AFC Championship

Why Kansas City Chiefs Will Win the AFC Championship

The injuries on the Cincinnati offensive line will matter at some point.

Buffalo played a weird game in the 27-10 loss. Josh Allen was tentative, the defensive front seemed surprised every time the Bengals tried to run, and there weren’t any answers for the receives who always seemed to be a step ahead. And why? There wasn’t any consistent pressure in the Cincinnati backfield.

Kansas City doesn’t go all out to get to the quarterback, but it should be able to at least breathe on Burrow more than Buffalo did. The run defense hasn’t had any real issues this year, and the secondary doesn’t give up a ton of deep shots.

And yeah, there’s something to the idea that everyone else – especially the defense – has to up their game with the main man hurting. Triple that for the offensive front.

To do this, Kansas City has to reverse what the Bengals dealt with last week. Buffalo ran just 19 times for 63 yards. Cincinnati ran 34 times for 172 yards – the Chiefs have to flip that script. Kansas City has to be the team that controls the clock and goes on long, grinding marches, just like it did against Jacksonville.

Patrick Mahomes got hurt, the gameplan changed, and the Chiefs quickly adjusted. They ended up holding the ball for ten minutes more than the Jaguars, and now they have to repeat the plan.

Yeah, they’re at their best when they go at warp speed and Mahomes gets into an unshakeable groove, but that’s asking a lot with his ankle issues. Ground, pound, and make that offensive line earn its paycheck.

Cincinnati was 2-2 when allowing 155 rushing yards or more, and one of those wins was to Baltimore in the Wild Card round when it was one inch away from probably losing.

Kansas City is 13-1 when running for 70 yards or more. However, that one loss came to …

– Bengals vs Chiefs Prediction, What’s Going to Happen

NEXT: What’s Going To Happen, Who’s Going to Win Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship

What’s Going To Happen, Who’s Going to Win Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship

We were all hoping for Buffalo vs Cincinnati to be a wild shootout with lots of fireworks, big plays, and momentum swings. The snow – and let’s just go there, a Buffalo gag of a performance – kept that from happening.

We were all hoping for Jacksonville vs Kansas City to be a wild shootout with lots of fireworks, big plays, and momentum swings. The Patrick Mahomes ankle injury kept that from happening.

Even if this isn’t the 34-31 offensive show the world might want, it’s going to be a gripping game. Unfortunately, it’s all going to come down to whether or not Mahomes can be anywhere near his normal self.

This should be a focused, smart, tough effort from the Chiefs, but it won’t be quite enough.

Cincinnati – starting with Joe Burrow – is about the most unflappable team in the NFL. There’s no panic in this bunch, it’s very calm, cool, and surprisingly steady for a group that’s so explosive on both sides of the ball.

It’ll have to deal with a quick early Kansas City surge. The first two Chief drives will be terrific. The running game will be good, Mahomes will connect on the scripted throws, and it’ll look like all is right with the Chief world.

The Bengals will be methodical. They’ll grind their way back in it, the Kansas City offense will stall a bit too much, and the last five minutes will be about 9 on the other side hitting two clutch third down throws to put this away.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship Prediction, Line

CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 23, Kansas City 20
Line: Cincinnati -1.5, o/u: 48
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs Must See Rating: 5
NFL Expert Picks: AFC Championship

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Story originally appeared on College Football News