College Football Playoff odds, games, lines: Ohio State, Notre Dame open as favorites in semifinal bowls

The first College Football Playoff semifinal matchups of the 12-team era are set as 7-seed Notre Dame will face 6-seed Penn State in the Orange Bowl and 8-seed Ohio State will play 5-seed Texas in the Cotton Bowl with berths in the national championship game on the line. 

After a lackluster first round, it was good to see at least a couple of competitive contests in the CFP quarterfinals. Penn State beat 3-seed Boise State 31-14, but the Broncos hung around for over three quarters. Texas eked out a 39-31 win against 4-seed Arizona State after two field goal misses in the final 2 minutes of regulation and two overtime periods. 

Not every quarterfinal game was filled with intrigue, however. Ohio State continued its rampage and decimated top-seeded Oregon 41-21 in the Rose Bowl, avenging a 32-31 regular-season loss to the Ducks in the process. Notre Dame handled business against 2-seed Georgia and gradually built on a lead throughout to walk out of the Sugar Bowl with a 23-10 win, securing its first College Football Playoff semifinal appearance since 2020. 

Below are the opening lines for the 2024-25 College Football Playoff semifinal round, which begins on the evening of Thursday, Jan. 9. Times below Eastern. 

2025 Orange Bowl odds

(7) Notre Dame -1.5 vs. (6) Penn State — Thursday, Jan. 9 (7:30 p.m.): Though Notre Dame has other true rivals in the Big Ten, there’s some history between the Fighting Irish and  Nittany Lions. The two sides have met 19 times since 1926 and played annually from 1981-92. That means a pair of program legends in ex-Notre Dame coach Lou Holtz and former Penn State boss Joe Paterno had the opportunity to meet quite a few times. This upcoming showdown is, without a doubt, the biggest. 

Notre Dame’s run has been admirable thus far given the still-mounting injuries the Fighting Irish have had to battle through all year. In the quarterfinal, they lost sacks leader Rylie Mills to a knee injury. Against Georgia, running back Jeremiyah Love — who has been dealing with a knee injury all year — barely played in the second half while sporting a bulky brace on his leg. Still, the Irish are a tough team with ferocious play on both lines of scrimmage. Penn State isn’t too shabby in trenches, either, where it has injury concerns of its own. Star edge rusher Abdul Carter exited Penn State’s win against Boise State with an injury and his status is up in the air. 

2025 Cotton Bowl odds

(8) Ohio State -6 vs. (5) Texas — Friday, Jan. 10 (7:30 p.m.): Ohio State’s been the hottest team in college football since the postseason started. The Buckeyes won each of their first two College Football Playoff games by a combined score of 83-38. In both, they jumped out to early 21-plus point leads in the first half and never looked back while cruising to their second semifinal appearance in the past three seasons. 

Texas is back in the semifinal for a second consecutive season, though its path has been a bit more fraught with danger. The Longhorns led by 24-8 in the fourth quarter of their quarterfinal match up against Arizona State before the Sun Devils roared back behind offensive star Cam Skattebo and forced two overtimes. Both defenses in this game are stocked with a tremendous amount of talent, particularly along the line of scrimmage, so matching up on the perimeter with wide receivers like Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith could decide the final outcome.