Livescore
Week 10 started off sleepy, but ultimately, seven teams ranked in the AP Top 25 lost as conference title races were shuffled. Three undefeated teams fell, leaving only five unbeaten squads remaining in college football.
However, the 12-team College Football Playoff means that very few teams are fully dead after one bad week in November. Almost all of them have at least some pathway to playing their way back into the conference title mix, which can earn a guaranteed trip to the postseason. Some of the paths are easier than others.
Here’s where each ranked team that lost on Saturday stands heading into the first College Football Playoff Rankings set to be released on Tuesday, and what their chances are of playing their way back into the mix.
Percentages to make College Football Playoff provided by SportsLine projections
The Nittany Lions are beneficiaries of one of the most manageable schedules in the Big Ten but have plenty of credibility built up, too. The only ranked win this season was against Illinois, which might fall out of the polls, but the Nittany Lions rate well in most advanced metrics that the committee could consider. With games against Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland remaining, it’s highly unlikely that Penn State drops another. That said, don’t be surprised if Penn State ranks slightly lower in the CFP Rankings than the AP Top 25. A lone quality win against the Illini won’t move very many mountains. Playoff chance: 90.1%
All the Aggies had to do was take care of business. That alone would have nearly guaranteed a spot in the playoff. Frankly, Texas A&M’s 44-20 loss to South Carolina was perhaps the most impactful loss in the country this week. Now, a loss to Texas drops the Aggies to 9-3. A win over LSU is still something, but it won’t make an entire CFP case. It all comes down to the rivalry game. Win, and the Aggies are in the field and likely playing for an SEC championship. Lose and Texas A&M could leave this season without even reaching a 10-win season for the first time in 12 years. Playoff chance: 31.9%
The Tigers’ resume slowly atrophied as the season went along. A devastating loss to Georgia suddenly looks less impressive. The ACC wins were against teams that are a combined 8-20 in conference play. Louisville was the first opponent with a winning record in ACC play, and the Tigers were crushed 33-21. Clemson is now firmly behind SMU and Miami in the race for the conference title game. The Tigers could potentially pass Miami on strength of schedule should the Hurricanes lose, but Clemson needs a lot of help. Playoff chance: 47.7%
Despite losing a late shocker against Texas Tech, Iowa State remains very much alive in the Big 12 title chase. The Cyclones are one of three teams with one loss or fewer in the Big 12 title race, along with Colorado and BYU. ISU controls its path to Arlington and can clinch by beating Kansas State in the final week of the season, which would satisfy tiebreakers over both Colorado and the Wildcats. However, what seemed to be a great at-large case is out the window. If ISU loses to BYU in the Big 12 title game, it will sit at 11-2 without many quality wins to lean on. Iowa State should still be considered a major factor in the Big 12 title race but falls back to the pack after a loss. Playoff chance: 40.6%
Kansas State
Once viewed as the top contender in the Big 12, the Wildcats crashed back to earth with a shocking 24-19 loss against Houston. The Wildcats blew a 19-10 lead in the fourth quarter to pick up a second loss (joining BYU) and making the path to the Big 12 title game much more difficult. The one piece of good news is that the Wildcats actually control their path to the Big 12 title. Kansas State has a tiebreaker over Colorado and can hand Iowa State a second loss on the road in the final week of the season. However, beating Iowa State and likely BYU in successive weeks is a tremendously difficult ask, and any at-large case is off the table. Playoff chance: 42.6%
After losing to SMU in devastating fashion, the Panthers can probably only make it to the College Football Playoff with an ACC title. The path is still alive, but Pitt is firmly behind both SMU and Miami in the conference title chase. A tiebreaker loss against SMU is a roadblock, though Pitt should hold a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker over Miami should the Hurricanes lose a game. Granted, if Pittsburgh beats Clemson on Nov. 16, it has a shot to finish 11-1, even without an ACC title game berth. Louisville and Clemson will give the Panthers at least some wins of value. Even at 11-1, the Panthers’ schedule makes the pathway uncertain at best for an at-large bid. Playoff chance: 15.0%
Illinois
The case for Illinois to make the College Football Playoff is on life support after the Illini picked up a third negative mark. Illinois lost 25-17 to Minnesota, which puts them at risk of missing out on the College Football Playoff Rankings completely when they’re released on Tuesday. All three losses were against Big Ten opponents, essentially extinguishing a path to Indianapolis. Illinois’ victories are also aging poorly as Michigan and Nebraska teeter on the edge of bowl eligibility. Playoff chance: 15.4%
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