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A lot of people like to put off talking about the College Football Playoff until very late into the regular season, as if acknowledging its existence too soon is breaking some sort of unspoken law. Well, it’s impossible to ignore it anymore.
Halloween, or All Hallows’ Eve, if you prefer, also marks the eve of the final month of the college football season. This weekend’s slate of games is the last before the inaugural set of College Football Playoff rankings are released on Tuesday, Nov. 5. Surely that’s the most important thing happening that night.
So, yes, the College Football Playoff is going to dominate discussion over the next few weeks, whether you like it or not. Even though time is wearing thin for competitors, or those just outside of the bubble, there’s still plenty of time for some major shifts.
As one might expect, the month of November contains plenty of momentous clashes that will have a huge bearing on the College Football Playoff race. There’s no fewer than three top-10 clashes over the last four weeks, and that’s as things stand now. The continued ascent of teams like Indiana and Pittsburgh could pump those numbers up.
As the calendar turns to November, here are some games with College Football Playoff implications to keep an eye on.
It doesn’t get much bigger than this. The fourth top-five matchup of 2024 features two teams that don’t tend to perform very well in such momentous occasions. Buckeyes coach Ryan Day is 2-6 against top-five opponents in his career, while Penn State coach James Franklin is 0-6 against Ohio State and Michigan combined since 2021. The Nittany Lions avoid the Wolverines this year and get the Buckeyes at home as the higher-ranked team. This is the opportunity for Penn State to prove that it’s a legitimate national championship contender as the schedule really clears up from here.
No. 18 Pittsburgh at No. 20 SMU (Nov. 2)
This game might fly under the radar, but it’s extremely important outside of the obvious ACC implications. SMU has quietly bounced back from a lackluster start to its first season in the ACC and emerged as a legitimate contender for a CFP berth. As things stand, this is its last game against a ranked opponent before the postseason. Realistically, the Mustangs have to win this, win out and then win the ACC title to feel really good about their CFP chances. All great journeys start with one step. As for Pitt, it’s one of just eight remaining unbeaten teams, though this will be its first test against a ranked team all year.
There’s no disputing that this is a must-win for Ole Miss; the Rebels are totally out with a loss here. They shredded any cushion they may have had with a home loss to now 3-5 Kentucky and an overtime loss to LSU. Beating Georgia for the first time since 2016 would go a long way toward erasing those sour memories. Georgia probably doesn’t need this win, though the Bulldogs won’t want to pick up a second loss and leave their chance up to fate and, ultimately, the CFP selection committee.
No. 14 Alabama at No. 16 LSU (Nov. 9)
It’s weird to see Alabama in a College Football Playoff elimination game this early in the season, but it’s been that kind of year for the Crimson Tide. The last month has been particularly rough. The Crimson Tide, in their first season under coach Kalen DeBoer following the retirement of Nick Saban, fell to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, reaching two regular-season losses before the month of November for the first time since 2007. It eliminated any margin for error they might have. LSU finds itself in a similar situation, though its losses are a bit more spread out. The Tigers steadily climbed the ranks after dropping their season opener against USC but wilted in Week 9 against Texas A&M. With how top-heavy the SEC is, neither team can afford a third loss if it wants to keep its eyes firmly on the 12-team field.
No. 7 Tennessee at No. 2 Georgia (Nov. 16)
If Georgia loses to Ole Miss, this game becomes even more important — not that it lacks in gravity regardless. Tennessee’s not a great road team. The Volunteers suffered their lone setback of 2024 at Arkansas and have really struggled in big-time environments away from Knoxville under coach Josh Heupel — who’s also never beaten Georgia. But there’s an old adage in college football: defense travels. And boy does Tennessee have a defense. The Vols are the only FBS team to hold each of their opponents under 20 points this season. That’s the kind of effort that will keep them in every game no matter what. Georgia looks more vulnerable this year than we’re used to seeing. Well, at least it did before dismantling Texas on Oct. 19.
No. 11 Clemson at No. 18 Pittsburgh (Nov. 16)
The ACC currently boasts one of the most interesting conference races in the nation. Clemson and Pittsburgh are two of four teams that remain unblemished in league play. Assuming that remains the case by the time this game rolls around, it could very well be a play-in for the ACC Championship Game. That, of course, puts a team one win away from the College Football Playoff. Even without thinking about the postseason, whichever team comes out on top should feel good about its chances; neither Clemson nor Pittsburgh play a ranked opponent over the last few weeks of the regular season.
No. 13 Indiana at No. 4 Ohio State (Nov. 23)
Indiana is real. The only knock on the Hoosiers thus far is their strength of schedule. It’s disingenuous — Indiana is ripping through opponents, and its strength of record currently ranks 10th in the nation, per ESPN’s FPI metric — but it is the perception that Curt Cignetti’s squad has to battle against. A win against Ohio State would squash any remaining doubts about Indiana’s legitimacy. There’s pressure on Ohio State, too, especially if the Buckeyes are unable to get past Penn State.
No. 21 Army at No. 8 Notre Dame (Nov. 23)
Notre Dame has already eliminated one service academy hopeful. The Fighting Irish padded their résumé in Week 9 with a 51-14 win against previously undefeated Navy. Army should provide quite the challenge, however. The Black Knights are one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation. They’re third in the AAC in scoring offense (40.4 points per game) and first in scoring defense (12.4 ppg). They’ve beaten every opponent they’ve faced by at least 17 points. Of course, they haven’t seen anyone like Notre Dame yet. A win here would surely propel Army past Boise State as the leader to represent the Group of Five conferences in the playoff.
No. 6 Texas at No. 10 Texas A&M (Nov. 30)
One of the south’s most heated rivalries returns, and it couldn’t be under better circumstances. So long as Texas and Texas A&M can make it through their remaining schedule without tripping into any pitfalls, this would be a top-10 showdown with a spot in the SEC Championship Game on the line. Texas A&M is the only SEC team left with a spotless record, and its path from here is wide open. Saturday’s road trip to South Carolina will be tough, but New Mexico State and Auburn are very manageable ahead of the Texas game.
If things go chalk leading into the last weekend of the season, which is never a given with the Big 12, this would be a play-in for the Big 12 Championship Game. It’s also the only remaining ranked game on Iowa State’s schedule. The Cyclones are in the midst of a special season. They’re off to their best start since 1938 and have a chance to go 8-0 for the first time in program history Saturday against Texas Tech. Kansas State has been a boom-or-bust team, in spite of its 7-1 record, but when the Wildcats are on, they’re very hard to beat.
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