Fantasy Fallout: Davante Adams to the Rams, DK Metcalf to the Steelers

The tampering isn’t quite legal yet, while the new league year remains several days away, but both the Rams and Steelers got a jump on the action Sunday with blockbuster wide receiver moves.

In the Rams’ case, they didn’t have to wait until Wednesday to make their Davante Adams signing official. Since he was released by the Jets, he was free to sign before the “tampering” commenced in earnest on Monday. It was not a given the Rams would dip into the market to replace Cooper Kupp, who still technically remains on the roster. They had already given $10 million to role player Tutu Atwell, while Jordan Whittington is coming off a solid rookie season.

But coach Sean McVay is allergic to rebuilds or waiting for the action to come to him. He goes out and finds it. Aside from trade candidates DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel, Adams is where the action is at wideout this spring. Although older than Chris Godwin, he’s more durable. Although less explosive than Metcalf, he remains more efficient.

It has now been an entire Olympic cycle since Adams received truly elite quarterback play — Aaron Rodgers’ final MVP campaign in 2021 — but as he proved in 2022 with Derek Carr, he doesn’t need QB greatness to stuff the stat sheet and print fantasy points. Although Matthew Stafford is diminishing along with Rodgers, he isn’t as far along in his decline. McVay’s elite coaching is another component Adams has missed since 2021. Adams has paved a path to Canton by getting open at will over the middle of the field. McVay, for his part, springs wideouts free like few coaches in recent history.

Despite Puka Nacua’s target commanding and YAC domination, this is a highly-concentrated offense that funnels looks to its best pass catchers. Even with Whittington coming along and Atwell a proven splash-play specialist, Adams and Nacua are miles ahead of their competition. That’s why Adams retains a high-end WR2 baseline and could easily rejoin the top 12 in 2025 even if Nacua is parked there, as well. From a fantasy perspective, it’s frustrating Adams didn’t land somewhere where he’s the clear-cut No. 1 receiver, but this is a dynamic offense that knows what to do with the ball. Adams will be highly relevant in his age-33 campaign.

The situation is much more complex for Metcalf, who went 1-for-3 on his reported trade desires. DK was said to be seeking: 1. Warm weather. 2. A contender. 3. To get $30 million per season. Item three was undoubtedly the most important, and Metcalf has gotten there with a new five-year, $150 million contract.

Everything else? Pittsburgh is one of the few NFL cities with reliably worse weather than Seattle, while true contention is starting to feel like a pipe dream in the Steel City. But fantasy managers don’t care about that. We only want to know: What kind of targets and PPR situations are we looking at? The answers? Bad, and worse.

We have a way of being overconfident about fantasy fits. Stefon Diggs to the Bills in 2020 was supposed to be a disaster until it wasn’t. But Metcalf is not going to a team that “just” lacks a quarterback. He is also arriving in an offense where his deep-receiving profile is one of the few things they already had. Everyone “knows” Metcalf and George Pickens are two of the league’s most dangerous boundary threats, but that perception is also borne out in the data.

NFL Network’s Michael F. Florio sums up the situation succinctly:

How exactly are these two men both getting their looks in an Arthur Smith coordinated offense? Smith famously can’t support one alpha target commander. Now he has two, and their games are carbon copies of each other. Metcalf barely cracked the top 30 in PPR points per game last season. Pickens struggled to breach the top 40. Metcalf is used to target competition, but not the lack of overall passing-game volume he is set to experience in Pittsburgh. Pickens has felt more like a role player than true No. 1 any time he’s had to compete for the ball.

All of that is on top of the fact that a quarterback bailout isn’t coming. The options are a rapidly declining Russell Wilson’s moonball, a coaching-restricted Justin Fields, or questionable rookie along the lines of Jaxson Dart. You find the hope there. Metcalf had to worry about his finances. He’s 27 and this could be his last major payday. He can grin and bear the tough football circumstances (though that was never his strong suit in Seattle). Fantasy managers? Every player becomes a value at some point, but like Najee Harris before him in the Steel City, stopping Metcalf’s “slide” in summer drafts will probably best be left to other managers.