Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: So you made the semifinals — now what?

One round down, two to go! Whether you’re coming off a bye or emerging victorious on the strength of any one (or several) of the dominating fantasy performances from Week 15, we’ve got the advice you need to keep the momentum going through to the championship.

If you were eliminated from the playoffs this past weekend and you’re just here out of habit, I love it! Starting Tyreek Hill, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry was supposed to turn out better than this. Nobody told me either that Mac Jones, Cooper Rush and Drake Maye were the key to winning the week while Jameis Winston, Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa were fantasy poison.

You’ve got three options now. One, you can look back on a wild rollercoaster of a season with fondness, appreciate how far you got and reflect on whether you could have logically done anything different. Sometimes the answer is no. You do your optimal best and the fantasy points will sometimes go the other way. But if you can learn anything about your tendencies to hold onto and start players based more on name value and ADP than actual performance and matchup, or when to blow your whole FAAB or if you should be more open to trade offers, take the lessons.

The other way to go is all-out rage. Play loud harsh music, delete all (other) fantasy apps and podcasts, do a good amount of sulking and of course, wish the worst on the leaguemates who beat you with freaking Jerome Ford or Rashad Batemon.

Lastly, give another fantasy format a try. Play DFS. You’re here, you might as well use the information!

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Back to the managers who are advancing: before we get into some specific player-related advice (I’m putting them in bins according to levels of trust this week), I want to follow up on some points from last week and zoom out to a league-wide look at motivation. Motivation matters a LOT this time of year. Teams with nothing to play for may rest starters in favor of checking out rookies or giving players on expiring contracts a chance to show what they can do ahead of the offseason. Your best bet is going to be starting players on teams fighting for a playoff spot or seeding advantage as much as possible.

Let’s look at some examples.

• Teams in the hunt for a playoff spot, most motivated: Baltimore, Denver, LA Chargers, Tampa Bay, LA Rams, Green Bay, Washington, Seattle, Atlanta. Technically, New Orleans, San Francisco, Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, Miami and Indianapolis aren’t yet eliminated either.

• Teams in the playoffs, motivated by seeding: Kansas City, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Houston, Detroit, Philadelphia, Minnesota.

Interesting games to target for Week 16:

Rams at Jets – The Rams have a good shot of making it but the win here would bring them closer to clinching. The Jets have given up almost 28 points per game over the last three games (eighth-most in the NFL). The Rams “big three” of Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams are obvious must-starts as are the Jets’ own trio of Davante Adams, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. The game has a 46.5 point over/under.

Eagles at Commanders – A big one for the NFC East, where the Eagles clinch the division with a win. Defense might make the difference here; Philly has been shutting opponents down (allowing the second-fewest points over the last three games and tied for the fewest points allowed for the season). With Zach Ertz in the concussion protocol, it’s possible that the Commanders feature rookie Ben Sinnott for the first time this season, but he’s not someone you can bet your fantasy championship on. The Eagles are favored by 3.5 points with a 45.5 point over/under.

Cardinals at Panthers – If there was ever a timely boost to your team’s playoff hopes, this is it. James Conner should continue to carry fantasy managers into the finals this weekend. Though it’s been disappointing, Marvin Harrison Jr. is still the best bet for a Cardinals’ wide receiver. He leads the group in targets by a wide margin, though Trey McBride is the real hero of this passing offense. Arizona is favored by four points and the over/under is 47 points.

Vikings at Seahawks – Everything is going swimmingly for the Vikings, who are averaging 31.7 points per game over the last three. They haven’t been as good on the road, but ironically, Seattle has been worse at home this season, averaging just 19.1 points per game. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have been massive letdowns, but Minnesota does give up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. If your decision comes down to game script and DvP (Defense vs. Position), I’m starting any Seahawk receiver this week (Geno Smith’s health permitting, of course). The Vikings are 3.5-point favorites with a 43.5-point over/under.

49ers at Dolphins – Both teams need a win, which won’t be possible, but could provide some nice fantasy fireworks. Miami is the 1.5-point favorite with a 46-point over/under. The truth is that if you started any of Tua, Hill or Jalen Waddle, you’re probably not moving on. But Hill should bounce back and Jonnu Smith should continue to feast (he’s fourth in targets with a 78.7% catch rate and six touchdowns this season). The 49ers were fairly forgettable in Week 15, but they get a few extra days to rest. Isaac Guerendo, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle should stay in starting lineups, though Miami’s DvP for wide receivers and the lack of production we’ve seen from Deebo Samuel Sr. earns him a bench spot.

Bucs at Cowboys – Another big NFC matchup with a 49-point over/under and the Bucs favored by four points. Dallas has one of the biggest home/road scoring differentials. They average only 16.6 points at home (26.0 away). Still, Cooper Rush has been effective in his last two games, throwing five touchdowns (to four different receivers) and only one interception. CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle are the only players I’d trust. On the other side, Mike Evans is obvious, but Jalen McMillan is startable. With nine catches on 13 targets and three scores in his last two games, he is fully integrated into the Bucs offense and Dallas is a friendly matchup (ninth-most fantasy points allowed to WR).

With the Bucs using three running backs now, it’s hard to feel great about Rachaad White or Bucky Irving, but I’d start both this week. White has three touchdowns in his last two games and Irving’s big-play ability has him averaging 5.6 YPC with six touchdowns this season.

Saints at Packers – This game should end the Saints’ playoff hopes, though, as evidenced by the 42-point over/under, their defense has been more effective lately (they’ve given up the third-fewest points in the last three weeks). Still, the Packers are favored by 13.5 points, which is a testament to their own defense, and Spencer Rattler’s lack of offense (the Saints have also scored only 15.7 points per game over the last three, the fifth-worst mark in the league). I’m not inclined to trust Kendre Miller, Marquez Valdes-Scantling or any other Saint in a must-win playoff matchup. Likewise, we’ve been struggling with the Green Bay receiving hierarchy, or lack thereof, all season long. Josh Jacobs, at least, is a no-brainer here, but it’s hard to sit Jayden Reed, Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs when any of them has 2-TD upside. This is going to be a very matchup-specific decision; if you need a guaranteed 10 fantasy points, I’d look elsewhere, but if you’re a huge underdog in your matchup, start your Packers’ WR.

• Teams not making the playoffs, least motivated: NY Jets, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, New England, Las Vegas, Chicago, Carolina, NY Giants.

Aside from a few stars like Adams, Wilson and Hall mentioned above and Brian Thomas Jr., Brock Bowers and Malik Nabers, I’d rather avoid these teams. Most of us will have to start Jerome Ford, Tony Pollard, Jerry Jeudy, Keenan Allen and maybe Jakobi Meyers too. Additionally, the game script could be very nice for your Bengals — Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins — vs. the Browns, even though a win this week likely won’t be enough to get them into the playoffs. This is the time to keep your eyes and ears peeled for any hint of teams shutting a player down or committing to getting a younger player more game action.

To be clear, this is more to avoid a dwindling workload than to take advantage of a possible increased workload on a bad team.

To sum up, target starting players from teams with the highest per-game scoring, teams with the highest implied individual totals and games with high over/unders. Look for the best rushing and passing matchups, using DvP primarily as a tiebreaker. In Week 16, it’s the tried-and-true fantasy players who are poised to carry you to the championship round. This is no time to overthink the obvious and tinker with your roster. If your justification for making a lineup change has a lot of “maybes,” “could” or “mights” in it, don’t do it! Stick to the calm and rational persona we touched on last week and get yourself into the finals.