Keys to a fantasy football victory in Week 12

Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri delivers his Week 12 keys to victory.

Pick-up-and-play of the week: Jonnu Smith vs. NE

Smith is coming off his best week of the season. In Week 10, Smith produced 100 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets against the Raiders. Smith has now earned six or more targets in five of his last six games. This is something only three other tight ends have done during this stretch. Smith now leads the Dolphins since Week 5 with a 21% target share. He also ranks third in yards per route run and second in yards after the catch among TEs during this time.

Smith is a great bye week filler for Week 12. But there’s a chance he’s much more than that. He’s been a top-two option in the Dolphins passing attack the past two months. Smith is closing in on being ranked as a top-10 TE the rest of the season. This week he takes on the Patriots, who rank bottom 10 in coverage according to PFF. You can pick up and play Smith this week.

Sketchy spot of the week: D’Andre Swift vs. MIN

Swift had another strong fantasy day in Week 11. He was able to produce 80+ yards for the sixth time in his last seven games. Since Week 4, Swift ranks sixth in fantasy points per game among all backs. That’s how good he’s been. But it wasn’t all good news for Swift in Week 11. His underlying usage actually got worse under new play-caller Thomas Brown. Backup Roschon Johnson saw a season-high 44% of the snaps and handled 100% of the two-minute offense snaps and the majority of the goal-line touches. This led to Swift seeing just 48% of the backfield carries, his second-lowest mark in a game this year.

That’s not great, and neither is his matchup this week against the Vikings. Minnesota allows the second-fewest rushing yards per play and just limited the Titans backfield to 15 yards on 12 carries in Week 11. It’s tough to sit Swift with six teams on bye, but temper your expectations in this difficult matchup.

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Best spot of the week: Bucky Irving vs. NYG

Irving returns from his bye this week and finds himself in a great matchup. The Bucs are 5-point favorites against Tommy DeVito and the Giants. There’s a good chance New York falls behind in this game, which sets up a positive game script for Irving to see more carries. But it gets even better because the Giants struggle to defend the run. New York allows the most rushing yards per play this season according to NFL Pro.

The Giants also allow the third most explosive runs of 10+ yards this season. This is the ideal matchup for Irving who has generated an explosive run at the 12th highest rate in the league. Irving also averages 5.6 yards per touch this season and ranks third in broken tackle rate. He’s coming off a strong performance in Week 10 against the 49ers where he totaled 87 yards and a touchdown on 16 touches. Expect this efficiency to continue in a strong matchup this week against the Giants and there’s even a chance we see his role increase coming out of the bye week. Don’t be shocked to see the rookie earn the first 20-carry game of his career.

Must-start: Brian Robinson Jr. vs. DAL

Robinson Jr. had one of the tougher matchups a running back can find last week, facing the Eagles’ No. 1 ranked defense on a short week. Despite this difficult spot, Robinson was able to produce over 70 total yards and a touchdown. The most impressive part was this was Robinson’s first game back from both a hamstring and knee injury. He returned from these injuries and took back his role as the Commander clear RB1 earning 67% of the backfield carries, his second-best usage on the season.

Robinson enters Week 12 with a much better matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas ranks 30th in run defense according to PFF and allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Expect Robinson to carry the ball 16+ times and push towards 100 yards and a score. He’s a must-start RB this week.

A new WR1 rest-of-season: Jauan Jennings

Jennings continues to operate as the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver. In Week 11, he led the team with 10 catches for 91 yards and a score. He was consistently Brock Purdy’s first read in crucial situations. Jennings earned six of his 11 targets on third down last week. This is the money down in the NFL — the down where you lean on your best and most trusted player, and lately, that’s been Jennings for the 49ers.

In three games this season with either Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel Sr. out, Jennings has averaged 11.3 targets and 116 yards per game. He’s never seen fewer than 11 targets in any of these three contests and is the number one fantasy receiver across those three weeks. This is still a small sample size, but it’s becoming clear that Jennings is the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver ahead of Samuel. This week, Jennings faces a Packers secondary that may not have cornerback Jaire Alexander and just allowed Caleb Williams to complete 74% of his passes last week. Jennings is a borderline top-12 receiver this week and for the rest of the season. Make sure he’s in your lineup, even if Brock Purdy were to miss with a shoulder injury.

Bye-week filler: Drake Maye vs. MIA

We have six teams on bye this week. Some top quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are not available for fantasy managers. A bye-week filler is needed, and the perfect option is Drake Maye. Maye has finished as a top-10 QB in two of his five completed starts this season and has never finished worse than the QB18 on a given week. This is impressive for a rookie QB but it’s even more impressive when you factor in his top receiver has been Kayshon Boutte, and he plays behind arguably the worst offensive line in the league.

Not to mention, Maye had to face the Titans and Bears defenses in two out of his last three games. Both teams rank top five at limiting opposing passing efficiency. But despite these tough matchups, Maye was able to find success. He completed 71% of his passes against the Titans and averaged a season-high 7.4 yards per attempt against the Bears. Maye is also coming off one of his better outings of the season where he completed 75% of his passes for 309 total yards and two touchdowns against the Rams in Week 11.

His composure under pressure and strong rushing upside make him a solid start this week, even if the matchup isn’t the best against the Dolphins. If you need help at QB this week, pick up and play Maye as your bye-week filler.

Bounce back of the week: Calvin Ridley vs. HOU

Ridley earned just four catches for 58 yards last week against the Vikings. This was his first game below 70 yards or eight targets since DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs. Entering Week 11, Ridley was averaging an elite 36% target share and 100 yards per game in the three games since Hopkins left the team. Ridley came back down to earth in Week 11, but he still earned a team-high 22% target share.

This week, Ridley is looking to bounce back against the Texans as an eight-point underdog. The Titans should trail often in this one which sets up nicely for Ridley to see more passing volume. Believe it or not, Will Levis has been solid since returning from injury. In Week 10 against the Chargers, he completed 78% of his passes and posted a top-10 fantasy finish. Then in Week 11, Levis produced 295 yards while averaging 9.5 yards per attempt. His play has been much better than what we got earlier this season. The improved quarterback play, and game script, have Ridley set up for a strong bounce back in Week 12.

Evans is expected to return from injury this week. He’s missed the past three games with a hamstring injury that he reaggravated in Week 7 against the Ravens. Evans will return to face a Giants secondary that ranks 16th in coverage this season according to PFF. This is by no means a bad secondary, but they aren’t great either.

New York allows the seventh most explosive plays on defense this season and that sets up nicely for Evans who has eight deep targets across five completed starts. Evans has finished as a top-10 receiver in three of his five completed starts and he’s earned a strong 23% target share in these five contests. But this should only increase now that Chris Godwin is out for the year.

Godwin earned a 27% target share this season and with him off the field, Evans should threaten for 10+ targets. That starts this week in a fine matchup against the Giants, but the good matchups will continue the rest of the year. Evans will face the Panthers twice, the Raiders and the Cowboys over the next six weeks. All of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in secondary play this season according to NFL Pro. Evans is trending up at the perfect time as the fantasy playoffs approach.

Jones entered Week 11 battling a rib injury. This was the fourth time this season he had picked up an injury that would go on to limit him or keep him out of practice the following week. Jones was limited in practice heading into Week 11 but was able to play on Sunday. However, he saw his worst usage in a completed game this season earning just 55% of the snaps and 50% of the rush attempts.

Cam Akers was more involved for the Vikings in Week 11, turning 12 touches into 36 yards and a touchdown. Jones was likely limited in this game due to his rib injury, but there’s also a chance the Vikings try to lighten his load moving forward. He’s turning 30 next month and has already battled injuries to his ribs, hamstring, hip and ankle this season. Week 11 has created plenty of questions for fantasy managers of Jones entering Week 12. Will his usage improve with another week of rest and recovery? Will Cam Akers remain heavily involved? This week against the Bears should answer a lot of these questions about Jones’ role the rest of the season.

He’s still a top-20 RB this week, but I’d start Chuba Hubbard, Rhamondre Stevenson and Brian Robinson Jr. over him right now.

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