When five-star Malachi Nelson signed with USC out of high school, a trip to the Sun Bowl probably wasn’t on his bucket list. El Paso is one of America’s finest cities and the Sun Bowl is a historic game, but he followed Lincoln Riley to Los Angeles to follow Baker, Kyler and Caleb into the Riley Heisman factory.
Instead, Nelson is set to join his third school in three years after leaving Boise State, his second school, for UTEP. On paper, he started his career at a program ranked No. 8 all-time in winning percentage. Among FBS programs that have played at least 25 seasons, only Kent State ranks lower than UTEP. Simply put, Nelson is headed about as far from USC as humanly possible only two seasons after landing as the star recruit.
Granted, Nelson should be able to lock up a starting job playing in Scotty Walden’s dynamic offense at UTEP. At the same time, he likely had a similar assumption about Boise State. Instead, Maddux Madsen, the No. 110 quarterback in his recruiting class in his third year in the program, beat him out. Now, Nelson stands as one of many cautionary tales for major college quarterback recruits in the transfer portal era.
Riley has a strong track record of developing strong quarterbacks, even for some who ultimately transfer. Spencer Rattler ended his career with nearly 11,000 yards and 77 touchdowns. Tanner Mordecai starred for SMU. Chandler Morris started at TCU and North Texas. It’s unclear how much agency Nelson had in his decision to leave last year, but he clearly did not reap the benefits of Riley’s quarterback development in only one year on campus.
Nelson is far from the only highly-ranked quarterback to move in recent years. After a bungled recruitment at Florida, top-50 recruit Jaden Rashada landed at Arizona State for 2023. After one season, he transferred to Georgia and lost the backup job to Gunner Stockton. After Stockton started in the Sugar Bowl, Rashada entered the transfer portal again, the writing on the wall that he would not be elevated above Stockton in time for the start of the 2025 season.
Had Rashada stayed at Arizona State, the Sun Devils might not have brought in Sam Leavitt to fill the role. Instead, Leavitt led the program to the College Football Playoff. Rashada served as third-string. Rashada’s camp is optimistic that there’ll be a strong market for his services. After essentially two wasted years, we’ll see.
The stories just keep going.
Nick Evers was the No. 8 quarterback in the Class of 2022. He went from Oklahoma to Wisconsin after one year. The next season, he transferred to UConn and lost the job to senior Joe Fagnano.
Former Texas quarterback Maalik Murphy went to Duke after two years. He was pushed out and landed at Oregon State.
In the Class of 2025 alone, Jaron Keawe Sogapolutele signed with Oregon, reneging on a longtime commitment to California. After only days with the program, he jumped in the transfer portal and ended up at Cal after all.
To the inverse of Nelson and Rashada, look to Miller Moss. The fellow USC quarterback was stuck behind Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, and was projected to lose the starting job in 2024 to Nelson in 2024. Instead, he won and put good film on tape, throwing for 2,555 yards and 18 touchdowns. When he was benched for Jayden Maiava, it was a reasonable time to transfer. He rated the No. 7 passer in the portal and committed to Louisville over a laundry list of good situations, making good money in the process.
Transferring in itself has benefits when handled correctly. Three of the final four quarterbacks in the College Football Playoff — Quinn Ewers (Texas), Will Howard (Ohio State) and Riley Leonard (Notre Dame) — are transfers. Three of the four Heisman Trophy finalists were transfers, including both quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel and Cameron Ward. The last three Heisman winners were all transfers. Gabriel and Ward were double-transfers, but each had serious success at their previous stops. They were developed quarterbacks looking for new homes.
At Georgia, Carson Beck waited three seasons behind Stetson Bennett before taking over the starting job and throwing for nearly 8,000 yards and winning an SEC title. All six quarterbacks drafted in the top 12 of the 2024 NFL Draft transferred one or fewer times. Two of the four transfers joined coaches they previously played for. Every one of the 11 quarterbacks picked in the most recent draft started games at their first school.
Far too many underclassman quarterbacks are rushing their own process in search of quick paydays and snaps. Ultimately though, history bears it out: quarterbacks get one mulligan. With only five years to play four, time is short and careers end faster than they start.
NCAA transfer portal via 247Sports: Latest portal additions | Team transfer rankings | Top player rankings
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