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Two college football heavyweights will play Jan. 9 in the Orange Bowl with a spot in the College Football Playoff national championship game on the line as (6) Penn State and (7) Notre Dame square off for the first time since 2007. It will be the first postseason meeting between the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish since the 1976 Gator Bowl. Notre Dame opened as a 1.5-point favorite as oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game with the total opening at 44.5 points.
The matchups pits a pair of teams with clear similarities as both are led by elite rushing attacks and stout defenses. Both teams also won their first two CFP games by double-digits to silence questions over their championship bona fides. The all-time series between the teams is tied at 9-9-1, and both teams are jockeying for a chance to play for their first national title since the 1980s.
Penn State stifled Boise State star running back Ashton Jeanty in a 31-14 win over the Broncos in a Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal victory, while Notre Dame outlasted SEC champion Georgia 23-14 in the Sugar Bowl. The Nittany Lions will have a two-day rest advantage on the Fighting Irish since the Sugar Bowl was delayed a day following a deadly terrorist attack in New Orleans early on New Year’s Day.
Ultimately, it’s a matchup that looks relatively even on paper. Here’s what to know about the Orange Bowl showdown.
What to know about Notre Dame
Notre Dame rallied from a stunning Week 2 home loss against Northern Illinois to win 10 straight games and close the regular season at 11-1. It dominated Indiana in the first round of the CFP and then outlasted Georgia in the semifinals behind a 2-0 edge in turnover margin and elite special teams play. The Fighting Irish’s long journey back from early-season embarrassment came on the back of a vicious defense and an elite rushing attack led by a trio of dynamic playmakers. The leader of the group is Riley Leonard, who has infused Notre Dame’s quarterback position with a level of dual-threat dynamism rarely seen from Fighting Irish QBs.
The Duke transfer has already set a school record for most total touchdowns in his first season with Notre Dame and has proven his effectiveness as a passer, in addition to his elusiveness as a runner. Notre Dame lost star defensive lineman Rylie Mills for the rest of the season during the win over Indiana and has been without star cornerback Benjamin Morrison since October due to a hip injury. But despite the losses of those two stalwarts, the Fighting Irish still boast a strong rushing defense to counter Penn State’s duo of star backs.
There are anchors at all three levels, with senior Howard Cross III headlining the front, Jack Kiser patrolling the middle of the field at linebacker and ball-hawking safety Xavier Watts starring on the back end. At 38, Marcus Freeman is the youngest head coach remaining in the CFP, and he’s shown the ability to motivate his team to perform in big moments.
What to know about Penn State
Perhaps no program in college football has benefitted more from conference consolidation and playoff expansion than Penn State. The Nittany Lions were left on the outside looking in at the four-team CFP on numerous occasions under 11th-year coach James Franklin. But with the Big Ten’s eradication of divisions, the Nittany Lions got a balanced 2024 schedule and took advantage with an 11-1 regular season record that made them a lock for the 12-team field, even after a Big Ten Championship Game loss to Oregon. They then capitalized on a favorable bracket draw with impressive double-digit victories over SMU and Boise State.
While the Nittany Lions are solid defensively, per usual, they’ve taken a step offensively this season under first-year coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton have each surpassed 1,000 yards rushing, and Penn State boasts the nation’s top tight end in Tyler Warren. The 6-foot-6 wrecking ball has made 98 catches for 1,158 yards and eight touchdowns this season while adding 197 yards rushing and another four scores on the ground.
Junior quarterback Drew Allar has made strides in his second season as the starter, registering 8.6 yards per attempt, which is up nearly two yards per attempt from 2023. Penn State is led defensively by star linebacker Abdul Carter, who has 22 tackles for loss and 11 sacks while emerging as a projected first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The secondary has ben solid as well, registering 18 interceptions, including six in the team’s first two CFP games.
2025 Orange Bowl odds, prediction
Notre Dame used a kickoff return for a touchdown and costly Georgia turnovers to outlast Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. It was an impressive showing, but was it replicable? The Fighting Irish enter the Orange Bowl with two fewer days of rest than the Nittany Lions, and that could make a difference considering how physical this game will be. Penn State wants to run the football, and Notre Dame is still grappling with the absence of star defensive lineman Rylie Mills. The Nittany Lions have demonstrated offensive improvement this season under first-year coordinator Andy Kotelnicki and have enough versatility to keep the Fighting Irish off balance in what should be a tight game. Pick: Penn State +1.5
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