Patriots-Bills preview: What to watch for with No. 1 draft pick at stake

Patriots-Bills preview: What to watch for with No. 1 draft pick at stake originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

FOXBORO — We’re handling the matchup preview, ahead of the Patriots and Bills tilt, a bit differently this week given the circumstances. Buffalo has the No. 2 seed locked up and won’t be going for the win. The Patriots say they’re trying to win but could lock up the No. 1 overall pick in the draft with a loss.

Call us crazy, but breaking down “Josh Allen vs. DeMarcus Covington” doesn’t feel like it’s worth your while. Instead, let’s get into some of the juicier subplots of what could be one of the weirdest games in recent memory at Gillette Stadium.

Matchup that will matter

Drake Maye’s competitiveness vs. Organizational decision-making

There is little reason to have Drake Maye play the entirety of the contest on Sunday. Simply, the risk far outweighs the reward.

Among the priorities for today’s meaningless game, played against a Bills team that won’t be going all-out for the win, has to be Maye’s health. Having him go into Year 2 with the ability to have a full offseason and make a real leap going into the 2025 campaign? That matters more than his ability to execute a two-minute drive or run a huddle for a couple dozen more snaps.

But Maye is a competitor. And his coaches are competitors. And they’ve all been mired in a brutally difficult season. Will Jerod Mayo, Eliot Wolf or — most importantly — the Krafts ever make it clear that playing Maye less than a full complement of snaps has to be the approach on Sunday? Would they be able to prioritize the long-haul over the win-at-all-costs approach that typically permeates every NFL game?

It’s a delicate balance for this regime. Openly tanking a game by making roster choices that would indicate that kind organizational attitude could rub players the wrong way. But the season is lost. And this year has been about asset management to a large degree — trading their best pass-rusher prior to the season, benching their young-and-promising quarterback after a strong finish to the summer in the hopes of developing him for the future — so staying true to that approach is my expectation.

Matchup that could actually excite you

Joe Milton III vs. The Clock

Though Milton told NBC Sports Boston this week that he had not been told whether or not he would see playing time, players in the locker room took note of Milton’s first-team reps in practice this week and several expect him to see some level of action against Buffalo.

This could be what salvages the game for fans in attendance and watching at home. Him playing could have myriad positive repercussions. No. 1 would be giving Maye a breather, as noted above. No. 2 would be perhaps Milton could show something on the field, in a non-preseason environment, that would make him an enticing chip for a quarterback-needy franchise. Remember the Patriots were able to spin off a young quarterback for a contributing player years ago after an impressive preseason finale back in 2017. That quarterback? Back on the roster: Jacoby Brissett.

It would be very much in line with the “Packer Way” to play Milton, and then if he’s valued elsewhere, deal him for a pick higher than the seventh-rounder the Patriots used to draft him last spring.

Matchup that will confound

Patriots fans vs. Fan instinct

Lots of talk about Patriots fans this week, much of it exhibiting unfathomably poor judgement from players who are sour at the results of this season and not appreciative of the boos they heard at home in Week 17.

But this week is different with the No. 1 overall draft choice on the line. The Patriots would lock that up with a loss. Therefore, for fans, what will be their priority? Jeering the poor play they’ve seen for much of this season? Or will they actually have draft positioning in mind, and root against their team having success against a divisional opponent?

The Bills, meanwhile, already have their playoff seeding locked up. And they may be more than happy if the Patriots don’t end up with the No. 1 overall pick. This is the rare scenario where both teams actually have motivation to lose. How will that impact the play on the field — or more specifically, the coaching decisions that impact the play on the field. Players will be trying hard, you would think, as they position themselves for jobs next season.

But fourth-down decisions, substitutions and more are worth watching closely. Then you should be able to hear how the fans feel about what they’re watching as it plays out in front of them.