SEC picks, odds in Week 12: Georgia, Tennessee battle for CFP footing; Texas on upset watch at Arkansas?

Nothing is settled in the SEC race, and though chaos may not ensue, uncertainty hovers over the conference heading into Week 12.

There isn’t just a three-team, one-loss logjam at the top of the standings, there is a scenario where as many as seven teams could finish with 10-2 records. Nearly half of the conference is still eligible to reach the SEC Championship Game with three weeks remaining in the season. That’s crazy.

This week features only one matchup between championship contenders — No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia — but several more are on upset watch. We have our eyes on No. 3 Texas, which travels to Arkansas to renew an old Southwest Conference rivalry. As much as we’re excited for the long-awaited return of Texas-Texas A&M, getting Arkansas-Texas back on the yearly schedule for the first time in 33 years is just as important. It’s a rare win for regional rivalries in the realignment era.

Elsewhere, No. 23 Missouri, which Eli Drinkwitz believes is still alive in the College Football Playoff race, travels to No. 21 South Carolina for the Battle of Columbia. Mizzou is a [/checks notes] double-digit dog.

Meanwhile, No. 10 Alabama and No. 15 Texas A&M scheduled warm-up stretches against Mercer and New Mexico State, respectively. (Can we get rid of the FCS games late in the season, please?)

On paper, it’s a weak schedule in the SEC and beyond, and legend has it that weeks like this are when the upsets occur. Do we subscribe to that belief? We’ll explore in this week’s picks, but first let’s check in with the CBS Sports Research team for some notes.

Just a SECond

A win Saturday would make Kalen DeBoer the first Alabama coach to win eight games in his first season since 1983 (Ray Perkins).
Georgia has won seven straight against Tennessee by at least 14 points.
Only two Georgia quarterbacks have ever thrown 12 or more interceptions during a six-game span: Carson Beck and Mike Bobo, who is now Beck’s offensive coordinator.
Texas has defeated seven teams by 19-plus points, tying Oregon for the most in the country.
Georgia has won a nation-leading 28 straight home games.
Tennessee has lost 27 straight road games against teams ranked in the top 14 of the AP poll.

Picks

Straight up: 74-20 | Against the spread: 45-42-2
Odds via DraftKings. Use DraftKings promo code to get in the game for all of college football‘s Week 12 action.

No. 3 Texas at Arkansas

Arkansas has struggled to maintain momentum after that early-season upset of Tennessee, losing back-to-back home games by 24 or more points to ranked teams. The Hogs’ offense can move the ball (483.6 ypg, No. 5 in nation) but struggles to finish drives (81st in red zone). The defense has been a mess in the secondary; they were picked apart in a record-breaking performance by Ole Miss two weeks ago to the tune of 515 yards and six touchdowns. Outside of Tennessee, this will be the best defense Arkansas has faced. The Longhorns have forced three or more turnovers in three straight games, and with Hogs quarterback Taylen Green’s carelessness with the ball, the Horns will score at least once off a turnover. Pick: Texas -13

Auburn is already focusing on 2025, labeling this game as a huge recruiting opportunity to convince the upcoming class to stick with the Tigers. ULM has lost three straight after starting the season with a surprising 5-1 record. Ahmad Hardy is a solid running back and eclipsed 200 yards two weeks ago in a one-score loss at Marshall. I still don’t have much confidence in Auburn being able to eclipse 30 points, and that’s enough for me to slide with ULM to cover if it can run the ball effectively on at least three possessions. Pick: ULM +24

Florida hasn’t packed it up this season, but it’s hard to maintain focus following a dramatic season of unrelenting injuries and rumors. Quarterback DJ Lagway (hamstring) remains day to day at time of publish, which means another start for third-teamer Aidan Warner could be on the horizon. LSU is coming off incredibly disappointing losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, low-lighted by quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who has thrown two-plus interceptions in four of the last five games. He also fumbled last week in the 42-13 loss to ‘Bama.

If Lagway is available, LSU might be in trouble. The TIgers have struggled against every mobile quarterback they have faced, none more than Jalen Milroe last week with nearly 200 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Without Lagway, the Tigers win and cover on the road. We’ll stick with that pick (for now). Pick: LSU -4

No. 23 Missouri at No. 21 South Carolina

This is a huge spread for two teams with similar placement in the rankings, but for those who watched Missouri this season, it’s no surprise. The Tigers struggle to score points, especially on the road, losing their two SEC road games by an average of 33 points. They needed a miracle fumble to beat Oklahoma last week.

Meanwhile, South Carolina has improved week to week in the SEC after suffering close losses to LSU and Alabama.. It drilled Texas A&M, dominated Vanderbilt on the road and return home to play their sixth game against an AP top-25 team, the most in the country. South Carolina has hit its stride on offense (491 ypg in November) and its defense has the nation’s No. 10 stop rate, according to ESPN analytics. The Gamecocks’ winning streak extends to four, but Mizzou will somehow cover. Pick: Missouri +11.5

No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia

Tenenssee has been smothering opponents with its defense and doing just enough on offense to win games. That will not be good enough on the road at Georgia, particularly with a group of angry Bulldogs steaming from a loss to Ole Miss. Tennessee has managed to hold 10 straight opponents to under 20 points dating back to last season, and with Georgia’s Carson Beck struggling (12 interceptions in six games is the most by an SEC player in four years), a slugfest could ensue at Sanford Stadium.

The key for Tennessee is not necessarily quarterback Nico Iamaleava (concussion), who may not play, but running back Dylan Sampson, who leads the SEC in rushing touchdowns (20) and has churned 100 yards in eight of nine games. The Vols need to control the tempo, pick up the tough yards and hit a couple of deep balls when able. Georgia’s path to victory is much simpler: don’t turn the ball over and rely on a top-15 defense to slow an offense that has eclipsed four touchdowns only once in the SEC. Pick: Georgia -9