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The 1983 NFL Draft is celebrated for its quarterbacks, and for good reason. It produced three of the greatest quarterbacks ever: John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly.
It also had some misses. Ken O’Brien was solid, but Todd Blackledge and Tony Eason were first-round disappointments. It’s almost impossible to have multiple quarterbacks taken in the first round and have them all hit.
So far, the 2024 NFL Draft class is making a run at perfection.
We’ve seen four of the six first-round quarterbacks in action and all four should get early grades as wins. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix have all given their franchises reasons to feel very good about the future. And J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. could also be very good, we just haven’t seen enough of them to know.
The odds of getting even a couple stars at quarterback in a draft are not great, even when six are taken in the first round. We might be seeing a special class.
A special class of rookie QBs
The 1983 draft is shorthand for a best-case scenario for quarterbacks in the same class, but maybe we should give the 2020 draft that title. That draft produced Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts. We still need to see if there’s a Marino or Elway among that group, but that’s a deep class.
When this year’s class had a record six quarterbacks taken in the top 12 picks, it seemed inevitable that we’d see some busts. There could be some misses, but no obvious ones yet.
Daniels has starred most of the season, and he did again on Sunday with three passing touchdowns and another rushing touchdown. Daniels has a passer rating of 99.4, which is close to C.J. Stroud’s 100.4 mark last season and Dak Prescott’s rookie record of 104.9. Daniels also has 590 rushing yards and six scores on the ground.
That’s a remarkable season, but he’s not in the clear for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Bo Nix has been even hotter than Daniels the past few weeks to push himself into the race. Nix looked pretty good again on Monday night, making plays as the Broncos continued a march to a playoff spot with a win over the Cleveland Browns.
Maye has been impressive given his situation on the New England Patriots. The Patriots have a lot of work to do when it comes to a talent-poor roster, but Maye is overcoming that. There was justified concern that Maye could struggle given the lack of a supporting cast, but he has looked just as good as any other rookie quarterback this season. The stats might not match his peers, but he has looked like a future star, just like Daniels and (at times) Williams. His rating of 87 isn’t terrible, but it doesn’t reflect the plays he has made on a bad team. He has shown great passing ability and can run it too.
Williams might be a little bit of a mystery, though the high points have been very good. Thanksgiving was another glimpse of potential greatness. He overcame a slow start to almost lead an epic second-half comeback against the Detroit Lions. He’ll get better now that the Chicago Bears have started to rectify their terrible coaching situation, firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and head coach Matt Eberflus the past few weeks. There’s little doubt about his talent.
We’ll see if McCarthy and Penix are on that level when they get their shot. McCarthy is out for the season due to injury and Penix is sitting and waiting behind Kirk Cousins, perhaps not for much longer if Cousins’ struggles continue. For what it’s worth, both looked good in their limited preseason action.
Just because a quarterback is good as a rookie doesn’t mean he has arrived for good. Mac Jones was pretty good as a rookie in 2021 and hasn’t done much since. But the early returns are good, and becoming one of the key stories of this season.
Why are so many young QBs hitting?
It’s not just the rookies. Plenty of young quarterbacks are playing well. The entire 2020 class is doing well and just entering their primes. C.J. Stroud has had a sophomore slump but has a bright future. Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson, a pair of top-five picks last year, have improved after briefly being benched. Brock Purdy has been a great story. Other young quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence have shown flashes and are young enough to make a leap.
Why has there been a pretty good hit rate for highly drafted quarterbacks lately, including four-for-four early this year? It’s not that scouting has come that far, because the 2021 NFL Draft class at quarterback mostly washed out and that wasn’t long ago.
NIL money for college players might be a factor. An extra season of experience helped the rookie quarterbacks who might have left school after the 2022 season in the pre-NIL era. There’s not a rush to jump to the NFL when you’re making seven figures in college, and we have seen inexperienced quarterbacks struggle early in their pro careers. Nix and Daniels also started a fifth college season due to the extra year granted athletes due to COVID-19. Having extra film on college prospects also does help NFL teams make better decisions at quarterback and avoid mistakes like Trey Lance, who had just 318 career passes at North Dakota State and has yet to make any impact in the NFL after being the third overall pick in 2021.
Whatever the reason, we might be seeing something special. It will be tough to beat the 1983 class since Elway and Marino might be top 10 all-time quarterbacks and Kelly is a Hall of Famer, too. But if there ends up being six stars out of the 2024 class, or even four, it will be historic too. The first steps have been promising.
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