Livescore
Chaos has arrived not only for college football down the stretch but also the outlook for the new top 25 rankings as well as the College Football Playoff picture could not be more unclear heading into the final week of the regular season. Three top-10 teams lost on Saturday, and in total there were seven teams that were ranked in last week’s AP Top 25 poll that lost in Week 13.
Of those defeats, just two came against ranked opponents. So while there were a few statement wins, the AP voters are mostly going to have to deal with the wreckage from seemingly good teams falling short of expectations.
Indiana’s loss at Ohio State will call into question the strength of the Hoosiers’ 10 wins and how that stacks up against other teams with one or two losses, while Alabama and Ole Miss are set for an even bigger drop in the rankings now that they sit at 8-3. Both the Crimson Tide and Rebels have head-to-head wins over Georgia, which will remain in the top 10 at 9-2, but also multiple losses to teams outside the top 25 that will weigh them down on voters’ ballots.
But the movement won’t just be reshuffling around the losers; Arizona State is sure to get credit for what was the biggest win of the day. It was also one of the most confusing wins as fans had to be cleared off the field and goal posts had to be raised back up to allow BYU one last play with one second on the clock. But in beating the Cougars to improve to 9-2, the Sun Devils will have checked the “prove it” box for voters looking for a quality win to round out a profile that has been stacking victories in recent weeks.
Here’s how we project the new AP Top 25 poll to look after Week 13.
1. Oregon (Last week — 1): The Ducks were off in Week 13 and will be back in action next Saturday against Washington in Eugene.
2. Ohio State (2): The Buckeyes had a pretty firm hold on No. 2 heading into the weekend, but that could be unanimous after the 38-15 win against Indiana. There were only a few voters who had Ohio State at No. 3, and given the two results between the Buckeyes and the Longhorns, it’s likely a few minds will change.
3. Texas (3): Credit the Longhorns for holding off a Kentucky team that had beaten Ole Miss and pushed Georgia to the brink, but any voters following the action on Saturday were likely drawn to the narrow margin during the second half rather than being wowed by a 17-point win.
4. Penn State (4): On a day where multiple top-20 teams were losing, Penn State survived an impressive push from Minnesota, overcoming early special teams miscues to take the game back in the second half and hold on for a win to improve to 10-1.
5. Notre Dame (6): The Fighting Irish continue to pound opponents, beating Army 49-14 in Yankee Stadium on a night where the backups got to play for much of the fourth quarter. It’s the sixth straight win by 18 points or more and ninth double-digit win of the season for Notre Dame, which is now 10-1 heading into next Saturday’s finale at USC.
6. Georgia (8): The Bulldogs poured it on late for a 59-21 result against UMass that keeps them in the same pecking order on most voters’ ballots. After beating Tennessee, the best thing Georgia can do for its rankings standing is continue to take care of business because there’s not a lot of opportunity to move up but plenty of punishment coming if the Bulldogs take a loss. Up next is Georgia Tech for a chance to finish the regular season with a 10-2 record.
7. Tennessee (10): A slight bump up is in store with Indiana and Ole Miss taking a step back, but don’t expect the Vols to jump ahead of Georgia given the recent head-to-head result in Athens. Tennessee blitzed UTEP 56-0 on Saturday to improve to 9-2 overall and will face Vanderbilt next week in Nashville as its final test looking to finish the regular season with just two losses.
8. Miami (11): The ability for Miami’s offense to pour on points late allow it to stage big-time second half comebacks and also turn close games into blowouts. The Hurricanes were in a 6-point game with Wake Forest into the fourth quarter but then finished with a 42-14 win behind another three-touchdown performance from Cam Ward.
9. Boise State (12): After trailing early and seeing star running back Ashton Jeanty get a little banged up, the Broncos showed their resilience in a 17-13 win at Wyoming. Jeanty returned to action and finished with 169 yards on 20 carries, including some big runs on the go-ahead touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.
10. Indiana (5): The fall for Indiana will differ from voter-to-voter, but in the consensus, landing somewhere in the range of Boise State seems likely. The Hoosiers’ profile actually improved on Saturday as Nebraska and Michigan both earned wins to reach bowl eligibility, but’s still a schedule that lacks any opponent that has been ranked in the AP Top 25 poll in recent weeks. That’s where Boise State can lean on the UNLV win.
11. SMU (13): The Mustangs clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game in their first year of ACC membership with a 33-7 win at Virginia. SMU is now 9-1, and while there aren’t a lot of ranked wins on the profile, victories against Louisville, Duke, Pitt and TCU give their stock some credibility heading into the crucial final rankings weeks of the season.
12. Arizona State (21): The Sun Devils now have victories against 8-3 Kansas State and 9-2 BYU, and while Arizona State was not on the voters’ radar several weeks ago, it has emerged in late November with one of the better profiles among two-loss teams.
13. Clemson (17): No major changes expected after improving to 9-2 with a win against The Citadel. There’s no really bad losses for Clemson (Georgia and Louisville), but with Pitt perhaps being the “best win,” a lot rides on next week’s game against South Carolina if we’re going to discuss a path for Clemson to finish significantly higher in the rankings.
14. Alabama (7): We’re projecting that the win against South Carolina sets the floor for the Crimson Tide’s fall following a stunning 21-point loss at Oklahoma. Alabama still has the win against Georgia to earn some tiebreaks, but voters are going to sell stock pretty fast considering how ineffective the offense looked on the road against a quality defense.
15. Ole Miss (9): On one hand, Ole Miss has eight wins and one of them is against top-10 Georgia. On the other, however, is three losses all to teams that we are not projecting to be ranked in the top 25 on Sunday. When Lane Kiffin laments the missed opportunities in Saturday’s 24-17 loss at Florida, he knows that this was a team that could have been in a much better position with a few plays going a different way in Gainesville.
16. South Carolina (19): The Gamecocks are riding a five-game winning streak and now 8-3 after taking care of business against Wofford. The win against Texas A&M is going to continue to be the strength of the Gamecocks rankings profile, but their chance to make a real statement awaits next Saturday at Clemson.
17. Texas A&M (15): The Aggies fell down 21-0 early on the road and stormed all the way back … but it was all for naught as Auburn prevailed 43-41 in a 4OT thriller. Texas A&M became the latest team to fall back in the SEC race that has become chaotic down the stretch.
18. Tulane (20): The Green Wave were off in Week 13 and will be back in action on Thanksgiving night against Memphis.
19. BYU (14): A second straight loss will lead to even more voters jumping ship from the BYU bandwagon, but wins against SMU and Kansas State will do enough work to soften the blow in terms of how far the Cougars will fall in the rankings as a 9-2 team.
20. Iowa State (21): Tremendous resilience from Iowa State to be able to withstand Utah’s comeback efforts on the road in Salt Lake City and emerge with a 31-28 win to improve to 9-2. The Utes even took the lead in the fourth quarter, but Iowa State answered with a go-ahead touchdown and key stops on the final drive to stay in the hunt for the Big 12 title.
21. UNLV (23): The Rebels kept their Mountain West title hopes alive with a win at San José State to improve to 9-2 overall. Up next is the regular-season finale against in-state rival Nevada and hoping for the results needed to propel into the Mountain West title game for the second straight season.
22. Illinois (24): On a day of crazy finishes, Illinois’ 38-31 win against Rutgers stands out as one of of the best. After Greg Schiano called timeout to try and ice the kicker before a 58-yard field goal attempt — which kicker Ethan Olano missed on the try that didn’t count — Bret Bielema sent out the offense for the fourth-down try and Luke Altmyer connected with Pat Bryant for a 40-yard game-winning touchdown. The score capped a 23-point fourth quarter for Illinois that now has the team 8-3 heading into next week’s finale at Northwestern.
23. Missouri (NR): The Tigers were 26th in voting points last week and trailed Washington State by a close enough margin to think that Missouri will get the bump up into the rankings after defeating Mississippi State 39-20 in Starkville.
24. Kansas State (NR): After two straight losses, Kansas State rebounded in a big way with a 41-15 win against Cincinnati. Now at 8-3, the Wildcats have wins against Tulane and Colorado to help break some ties among teams on the edge of the top 25, and those losses to Arizona State and BYU don’t look as bad considering where both teams stand heading into Week 14.
25. Army (18): Will Army be able to hang on in the top 25? There will certainly be some voters that will keep the Black Knights on the ballot with respect for the team’s 9-1 record, but the way Saturday night’s game played out against Notre Dame suggested there’s a lot of space between Army and the best teams in the country. Whether that result says more about Notre Dame or Army will depend on the voter, but with a wide variety of options in the 20s on a ballot, this feels like a common team to pick across the consensus.
Projected to drop out: No. 16 Colorado, No. 25 Washington State
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