Will gritty Notre Dame shock the world or does Ohio State complete dominant run in national championship game?

ATLANTA — Notre Dame doesn’t have a chance, right?

There’s a reason those win probability analytics are so dumb. Everyone always has a chance to win. You actually have to play the game instead of paying attention to some arbitrary numbers. 

To get to the College Football Playoff National Championship, the Fighting Irish have slammed Indiana, beaten SEC power Georgia even worse and come from behind to defeat Penn State. 

What more proof do you need? Ohio State is an 8-point favorite Monday night in Atlanta. We get that. But the number has shrunk from 9 ½ points, so smart money somewhere is thinking logically. 

We also know the man on the street has barely considered how Notre Dame absolutely can win this game. 

Well, here’s the blueprint …  

How Notre Dame can win

I love slot receiver Jordan Faison. He’s 5-foot-10, looks even smaller and just keeps making plays. Think of Hunter Renfrow in his height — or lack thereof — at Clemson. 

Faison is also one of those heart-and-soul guys. He’s a walk-on. He’s already won a national championship at Notre Dame in lacrosse. A football title would make it two within 12 months.

Ohio State also cannot ignore him. Faison has 29 catches this season, 13 of which have come during this playoff run. Not to say Faison will go crazy against Ohio State, but the Buckeyes must be aware of his presence at all times. 

That’s just one slice of life with the Irish, who are a sum of their parts. 

Marcus Freeman has squeezed every drop of production out of this team. In the playoff, Notre Dame has returned a kick for a touchdown (Georgia), scored more than half its points on special teams and has more than a quarter of its season total in tackles for loss (21). 

The assumption is that Ohio State QB Will Howard and his weapons will pick the secondary apart. This is actually a good matchup for the Irish. Texas showed how to eliminate star freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith by bracketing him in the semifinal. Smith was targeted three times and caught only one. 

Notre Dame’s secondary is on a par with Texas. If it can slow down as well, it will take its chances with Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. 

The key for the Irish is to limit Ohio State possessions. The Buckeyes are average in that department — sixth among the 12 CFP teams in time of possession.

Most important for the Irish is their ability to take the ball away. A nation-leading 32 turnovers has resulted in 151 points. 

So, let’s say a couple of turnovers are turned into 10 points, Notre Dame returns another kick for a score and the game is close into the fourth quarter — voila, you’ve got yourself an upset! 

You can stick that win probability up the section 13 concourse at Notre Dame Stadium. 

Hidden stat: Since Jeremiyah Love ran for a 98-yard touchdown against Indiana in the playoff opener, Notre Dame has averaged 3.27 yards per carry. That would rank 123rd nationally right now over a full season. 

How Ohio State can win

First of all, duh. The Buckeyes are on the playoff’s best heater. Since that unforgiveable loss to Michigan, they have beaten three opponents by an average of almost 20 points. 

The defense is the best in the country both statistically and via the eye test. Ask defensive end Jack Sawyer how he feels right about now. The key is to stay patient offensively. Again, this ND defense is more than likely to slow down the Bucks. Think of the Texas game, which didn’t bust open until late. 

Ohio State committed a season-high nine penalties against Texas. It must not play into Notre Dame’s hands by being too aggressive. By that I mean take shots but don’t be greedy. This Notre Dame defense is a bunch of ball hawks.

Howard had an issue with turnovers early on (Michigan, ugh!). So far, however, he is the best quarterback in the playoff only 71 yards passing away from becoming the first 1,000-yard passer in CFP history. 

Will Howard’s one-and-done season at Ohio State serving as perfect culmination to underdog journey

Dennis Dodd

If a disrupted (by injuries) offensive line can set the edge, running backs TreyVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins can turn the corner. Combined, they are averaging 6.18 yards per rush in the playoff. Both can go over 1,000 yards in this game. 

To lose this game, the Buckeyes have to be active participants. By that I mean they would have turn it over, get a kick blocked and somehow give up explosive plays to an opponent that absolutely doesn’t excel in explosive plays.

Hidden stat: Opponents have committed the fewest penalties in the country against Ohio State, only 3.7 per game. Opposing defenses haven’t been called for a hold on the No. 1 defense in the country since September, according to the Columbus Dispatch. 

The world expects another boat race by Ohio State. It won’t get one. The Irish will keep it close. 

Prediction: Ohio State 23, Notre Dame 17