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A healthy Nathan MacKinnon asserted himself as the NHL’s most dominant player last season, taking home the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award in his 11th NHL campaign. After years of exceeding a point-per-game pace and having monster playoff performances, it was only a matter of time.
Through the first 15 games of this young season, MacKinnon is one of the favorites for the Hart once again. Only 11 NHL players have won the award in back-to-back seasons, but the Colorado Avalanche center is in the mix to become the 12th.
His league-leading 29 points in 15 games have him on pace for 158 points over 82 games, which would be the most since Mario Lemieux’s 161 in 1995-96.
He isn’t even scoring at his per-60 rate of last season, either. He’s netting 1.2 goals per 60 minutes, according to moneypuck.com, a far cry from the 1.64 he picked up in his 51-goal 2023-24 season. If he starts finding the back of the net more, Hart Trophy history is certainly within reach.
But as it was last season, the field will be highly competitive.
Minnesota Wild left winger Kirill Kaprizov is only one point back of MacKinnon and has generated MVP chatter, as has teammate Cale Makar, who’s third in overall league scoring as a defenseman.
Related: Wild Star Kirill Kaprizov Is An NHL Hart Trophy Front-Runner? You Better Believe It
The list doesn’t end there, either. Tampa Bay Lightning right winger Nikita Kucherov, who finished second in Hart voting last year, is as elite as ever, and perennial candidate Connor McDavid has had another slow start by his standards with the Edmonton Oilers but can be counted on to finish as strong as anyone.
Last season, Kucherov was MacKinnon’s only real competition, according to members of the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association. Still, the Colorado pivot received nearly 71 percent of the first-place votes, with 137 compared to Kucherov’s 50.
Alex Ovechkin was the last player to win back-to-back Hart Trophies, dating back to 2008 and 2009. He won both votes in landslides, garnering 96 and 86 percent of the first-place votes. His 2008 victory was a no-brainer after leading the NHL with 65 goals and 112 points, but there was a case to be made for Evgeni Malkin in 2009 when he earned three more points than Ovechkin to finish with 113. However, Malkin’s 35 goals couldn’t touch Ovechkin’s 56, making the case open and shut for voters.
Since then, it’s been extremely difficult for Hart winners to separate themselves from the pack in subsequent seasons.
Even McDavid, a three-time winner, hasn’t asserted his claim to the award in consecutive years. After McDavid’s win in 2017, Taylor Hall dragged the New Jersey Devils to the playoffs, and standout performances from Kucherov and Leon Draisaitl in the following campaigns outshined McDavid’s consistent brilliance. McDavid finally won it again in 2021, only for Auston Matthews’ goal-scoring to take center stage in 2022. The Oilers phenom snagged the award again in 2023, but an injury opened the door for MacKinnon last season.
Related: NHL Awards 2024: What Stood Out In the Voting for the Hart, Norris, Vezina and Calder
McDavid’s early stumbles out of the gate this season aren’t the biggest boost to MacKinnon’s Hart chances this year, but that doesn’t make the rest of the field any easier to beat. The Hart Trophy winner is awarded to the player judged the most valuable to his team compared to any other player in the NHL, and MacKinnon’s most frequent linemate is superstar Mikko Rantanen. He also spends plenty of time racking up power-play points alongside fellow Hart contender Makar. That’s why Kaprizov could steal plenty of votes by the end of the year, even if he finishes with fewer points. His most frequent linemates so far, Marco Rossi and Mats Zuccarello, simply aren’t of the same ilk.
There are always players like Kaprizov reaching the peak of the hill, but it speaks volumes about MacKinnon that he’s been in the conversation for this many years. Since finishing second in Hart voting behind Hall in 2018, he finished sixth, second and third before an injury-riddled 2021-22 season. After that, he placed fifth and first.
Few players reach the pinnacle, and even fewer stick around the top. MacKinnon is one of those players, so few will be surprised if he becomes the 12th NHL player to win back-to-back Hart Trophies.
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