Livescore
If Alex Ovechkin picks up where he left off when the Washington Capitals get back to work next week, he’ll be on track to break Wayne Gretzky’s NHL goals record before the end of this season.
Whenever he scores his 895th career NHL goal, it’ll be a historic night, likely filled with fanfare.
When Gretzky passed Gordie Howe with his 802nd goal on a second-period power play in Los Angeles on March 23, 1994, the Kings’ game against the Vancouver Canucks was immediately paused for a 15-minute on-ice ceremony. Taking part were Gretzky’s parents, his wife Janet, Kings owner Bruce McNall and commissioner Gary Bettman — then in just his second year on the job.
After struggling a bit when he returned to action from his broken fibula after the Christmas break, Ovechkin has picked up his scoring pace to a level that puts Gretzky’s record within reach.
With goals in four of his last five games with Washington, he’s now up to 26 goals in 39 games played this season. That’s exactly two-thirds of a goal per game, which is higher than his full career average of 0.60 goals per game.
Always a pure shooter, his accuracy is better than it’s ever been. Earlier in his career, Ovechkin was all about volume, leading the league in total shots in 11 of his first 13 seasons, according to hockey-reference.com. Now, he’s more choosy, and his shooting percentage has spiked as a result.
After breaking 14 percent just twice in those first 13 seasons, he has eclipsed that number in five of the last seven years. This season’s mark of 18.4 percent is his highest yet.
When Is The Big Day?
If Ovechkin can keep up his scoring pace from this season, it will take 24 games for him to score the 16 goals he’ll need to pass Gretzky.
The Capitals have 27 games left in their season. If he stays healthy, Game 24 will be in Columbus on Saturday, April 12.
If Ovechkin scores at his full career pace, he’d need exactly 27 games to score 16 times. The Capitals close out their regular season in Pittsburgh on April 17. Imagine the moment if he broke the record while playing against Sidney Crosby at PPG Paints Arena.
Could he get there faster? Don’t rule it out.
Before he was injured on Nov. 18, Ovechkin had 15 goals in 18 games. That’s a pace of .833 goals per game. If he could get back to that after the break, he’d need just 20 games. In that case, the record would fall in Raleigh on April 2 against the Carolina Hurricanes.
Related: Which NHL Conference Leader Looks More Ready For A Deep Playoff Run: The Capitals Or Jets?
Could He Be Faster Than Gretzky?
If Ovechkin could pull that off, he’d also hit another incredible mark — breaking the goals record in fewer games played.
Gretzky’s 894 goals came in 1,487 games over 20 seasons. Ovechkin is currently at 1,465 games. If he can get 16 goals in 22 games or fewer, he’ll set a new standard.
And while casual observers might think that Ovechkin has picked up his scoring rate in the late stages of seasons as he chased 40, 50 or even 65 goals in different years, the data doesn’t bear that out. Over his full career, hockey-reference.com shows that he has scored .6004 goals per game before the All-Star break and .5991 after — a small difference, with the early part of the season actually being a little more productive.
But while February is usually his quietest month, at 0.56 goals per game, he scored in three out of four before the 4 Nations break for 0.75.
When regular-season action resumes, the Capitals will play four more games in February, then 14 in March and nine in April. Sadly, they’re not playing on March 23, the 31st anniversary of Gretzky’s big night.
Caps fans would undoubtedly love to see the record broken on home ice at Capital One Arena, but that’s a bit of a long shot. Washington will play just three of its last nine games on home ice — hosting the Chicago Blackhawks on April 4 (Game 76), the Hurricanes on April 10 (Game 78) and the Blue Jackets on April 13 (Game 80).
One more fun fact: despite the time he missed earlier this season, Ovechkin’s 26 goals are currently tops on the Eastern Conference-leading Capitals, ahead of Tom Wilson (24) and Aliaksei Protas (22).
If Ovechkin finishes out the year in the No. 1 position, he’ll become just the fifth NHL player aged 39 or over to lead his team in goals. The others are Shane Doan of the Arizona Coyotes (2015-16), Jaromir Jagr with the Dallas Stars (2012-13), Johnny Bucyk with the Boston Bruins (1975-76) and Gordie Howe with the Detroit Red Wings (1967-68).
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