Underrated Senators Defenceman Nikolas Matinpalo Doesn’t Deserve To Have His Role Diminished In Ottawa

The inclusion of Nikolas Matinpalo for Finland’s Four Nations Faceoff entry raised some eyebrows around this city.

That is not because of his performance as a Senator.

Since entering Ottawa’s lineup, the 6’3″, 213 lb Finn has not looked out of place on the team’s third pairing playing alongside Tyler Kleven. Following Nick Jensen’s return from injury on Feb. 4, however, Matinpalo’s role has diminished.

The Finnish defender was a scratch for that Feb. 4 game against the Lightning. When they elected to dress seven defencemen and 11 forwards in their final two games before the Four Nations Faceoff break, Matinpalo played the fewest minutes amongst the defencemen.

That reduced role feels undeserved because of Matinpalo’s play. Granted, Senators fans have historically tended to overvalue the performances of defencemen who did not immediately look out of place. To Matinpalo’s credit, however, he has looked like an NHL regular through his combination of size and skating.

Ahead of last Wednesday’s AHL game at the Canadian Tire Centre, David Bell, the Belleville Senators’ head coach, lavished Matinpalo with praise when asked about the start of his career in Ottawa.

“He’s been the best-kept secret for about 10-12 months,” said an obviously excited and proud Bell. “The first time I saw him, you see guys and (know) that’s an NHL defenceman. His body, the way he skates, the way he carries himself, it was just a matter of time (before he got a chance).

“He does everything hard. He does everything assertively. Coming over here for the first time at that age to play on the smaller ice, he’s just gotten better and more comfortable. (I) knew once he got here and got comfortable with his feet under him that (he would make it). I’ve been around the game and guys in the American (Hockey) League a long time. (I) knew that with the way he plays, he was going to get up here and have success. He keeps it simple, but he’s skilled enough to make some skilled plays. He knows what he is. He’s a hard to play against guy that does everything hard. He is also low maintenance for the trainers and the coaches. Those guys usually make it.”

Having spent the entire 2023-24 AHL season partnered with Matinpalo, Tyler Kleven believes the two are building on the chemistry that they developed last season.

“We’ve picked up where we were last year where our job was to shut down top lines in the AHL,” Kleven explained. “I thought we were playing really well down there towards the end of the last year, and now this year like we’ve spent like I don’t know like 10 and 15 games together.

“I feel like we’ve done a pretty good job at locking some lines down and trying to be good defensively. I enjoy playing with him. He’s just so simple and he gets the puck out. He’s a great defender, so that’s that’s my job right now, too. Play a lot of good minutes and be good defensively.”

Like David Bell, Kleven is a believer in Matinpalo’s size and ability to take away space.

“He’s big and rangy. It makes it hard on the other team. They don’t have a lot of time and space. We work well together and shift around the ice pretty (effectively). He makes good reads, so he’s a good (partner) to play with.”

Without delving too deep into his well-documented struggles, the reluctance of the coaching staff to slide Travis Hamonic down the depth chart has also contributed to the public discourse. There is a reasonable argument for it. If Matinpalo can average 13:54 of ice time while being asked to play against the best players in the world, how can he continue to lose playing time to someone who profiles as one of the worst statistical defencemen this season?

Since several people have asked over the Four Nations Faceoff break, here is a statistical breakdown of Tyler Kleven’s third pairing partners during the 2024-25 season.

Thanks to Evolving-Hockey’s data, it is easy to isolate how the Senators have played while Kleven and his different defensive partners have been on the ice at five-on-five.

• Kleven and Matinpalo: 159.5 TOI, 49.90 CF%, 45.38 SF%, 40.39 GF%, 40.27 xGF%

• Kleven and Bernard-Docker: 259.9 TOI, 48.73 CF%, 49.89 SF%, 55.94 GF%, 42.70 xGF%

• Kleven and Hamonic: 151.9 TOI, 43.86 CF%, 40.84 SF%, 19.56 GF%, 51.77 xGF%

Purely from an on-ice goal and shot impact point of view, the Senators generate a greater share of the shots (CF%), shots on goal (SF%) and goals (GF%) when Kleven has played with Bernard-Docker. The data when Matinpalo is on the ice is not that dissimilar from Bernard-Docker, but they are slightly worse. The most interesting wrinkle is that while the Senators tend to give up more shots with Kleven and Hamonic on the ice, they are the only pairing featuring an expected goal rate greater than 50 percent.

The rate stats shed more light on the pairings have fared :

• Kleven and Matinpalo: 1.54 GF/60, 2.28 GA/60, 23.51 SF/60, 28.29 SA/60, 1.70 xGF/60, 2.53 xGA/60

• Kleven and Bernard-Docker: 2.35 GF/60, 1.85 GA/60, 22.57 SF/60, 22.67 SA/60, 1.70 xGF/60, 2.28 xGA/60

• Kleven and Hamonic: 0.77 GF/60, 3.17 GA/60, 20.48 SF/60, 29.66 SA/60, 2.08 xGF/60, 1.94 xGA/60

When Hamonic and Kleven are on the ice together, the Senators do give up a higher rate of shots (SA/60) and goals (GA/60), but they do have the lowest expected goals allowed rate (xGA/60). Based on the statistical modelling, that would indicate that the duo is being credited with allowing fewer chances. Given the disparity in the shot volume and how the Senators barely generate any quality chances while that pairing is out there, it would not be unreasonable to suggest that this metric could regress over time.

Travis Green has often referred to expected goal data during his media availabilities, so more emphasis may be placed on that metric than others to explain why he has continued to dress Hamonic.

This article is from The Hockey News-Ottawa. For more great Ottawa Senators coverage, check out THN.com/Ottawa or leave a comment below at Senators Roundtable.

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