Denny Hamlin is the Pocono favorite after his disqualification in 2022

Perhaps the winner at Pocono will actually cross the finish line first this year.

Chase Elliott enters Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at the 2.5-mile triangle (2:30 p.m. ET, USA) as the defending race champion despite his third-place finish a season ago. Elliott finished behind both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, but both Hamlin and Busch were disqualified after the race in post-race inspection because of unapproved tape on the front of their cars.

NASCAR announced before the 2019 season that winners who failed post-race inspection would be disqualified, but no Cup Series driver had lost a win due to a disqualification until Hamlin (and then Busch) at Pocono. The double DQ marked the first time since 1960 that a winning Cup Series driver had been disqualified for a technical violation.

Hamlin’s “win” a season ago along with his history at Pocono make him the BetMGM favorite ahead of Sunday’s race at +500. Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate and Monday’s winner Martin Truex Jr. is the No. 2 favorite while Busch and Kyle Larson are tied as the No. 3 favorite.

Elliott is down at +1100 as he looks to get a win to snag a playoff spot. The 2020 Cup Series champion is currently 23rd in the points standings and 61 points out of the 16th and final provisional playoff spot with six races to go in the regular season.

A 61-point deficit over six races can be made up without a win, but Elliott may have to pass too many drivers to qualify for the playoffs via points. He finds himself out of the top 20 because he missed six races with a broken leg and a race because of a suspension for intentionally wrecking Hamlin at Charlotte.

Elliott has been solid but unspectacular since he returned from that broken leg at Martinsville. He has just one finish outside the top 13 (a 34th at Charlotte) and has four top-five finishes in that span. But he’s led a grand total of 37 laps in those 11 races and hasn’t shown he has a car capable of contending for wins.

Will he have one on Sunday? We’ll see. Here’s what you need to know to bet the race.

The favorites

Denny Hamlin (+500)
Martin Truex Jr. (+600)
Kyle Busch (+700)
Kyle Larson (+700)
William Byron (+900)

Hamlin has six official Pocono wins and has finished in the top 10 in 21 of his 33 starts. Truex has won twice at the track but his last win came in 2018 and he has just one top-five finish since. Busch has four wins and 11 top-five finishes while Larson has nine top-10 finishes in 15 starts. Byron has the best average finish of any active driver (9.4), though he has no wins and two top-five finishes in nine starts.

Good mid-tier value

Christopher Bell (+1200)
Tyler Reddick (+1200)

We’re going with two talented Toyota drivers in this category. They should have comparable speed to the two favorites. Bell has two top-five finishes in five starts at Pocono and Reddick was officially second to Elliott a season ago.

Don’t bet this driver

Suarez has two top-five finishes in 11 starts at Pocono and was third a season ago. But there’s been nothing shown in his season so far that makes us think he’ll get a win Sunday.