NASCAR odds for playoffs: Kyle Larson a favorite, Chase Elliott a maybe, Martin Truex a no

Once the NASCAR playoff field was set Sunday night at Darlington, the oddsmakers went to work constructing their big board.

They work fast and they tend to work smart.

Let’s see how things are shaping up as we point toward the 10-race chase to the 2024 Cup Series championship.

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NASCAR playoff payoff odds

Courtesy of Hard Rock

+400: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell

+425: Denny Hamlin

+600: Tyler Reddick, William Byron

+700: Ryan Blaney

+1200: Chase Elliott

+1600: Joey Logano

+1750: Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr.

+3000: Ty Gibbs, Alex Bowman

+10000: Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, Harrison Burton

Kyle Larson, yes, but Christopher Bell?

I wasn’t surprised to see Kyle Larson up top, of course, but if he was sharing that uppermost rung, I’d say Denny Hamlin is a better bet than Bell, though at +425 Denny is just barely in arrears.

Since 1972, when the so-called “modern era” began in NASCAR, Hamlin is the winningest driver without a championship. Year after year, it seems we sit here at this stage of the season and say maybe, just maybe, this is his time. But again, it’s so much easier to lose these things than win them.

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Next on the above list is Tyler Reddick, and if you stopped right there and said the eventual champ will come from those top four, I couldn’t make a great argument against you. Reddick might enjoy some championship vibes from one of his team’s co-owners — a guy named Michael Jordan, who has quite a hardware collection in the home trophy case.

OK, OK, let’s make an exception to that top four with the guy next to Reddick on the board, Billy the Kid.

Byron has been consistently inconsistent nearly all season and hardly comes into the playoffs with all the juice getting to that rear axle. But that’s a Hendrick Chevy he’s driving, so if he gets his fourth win of the season over the next few weeks, and subsequently regains his footing and goes on a playoff roll, would you be shocked?

I didn’t think so.

The next three or four guys, I’d be at least mildly surprised.

Can Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney find playoff mojo?

Blaney had a good July but before and after have brought little to suggest he’s ready to defend his Cup championship.

Ryan’s buddy Chase has somehow morphed into Terry Labonte and gone into points-gathering mode this year. Steady, most of the way, but few headlines and highlights.

Joey Logano is a two-time champ who knows the way to Phoenix, so he’s one of the few here who’d leave you saying, “Well, should’ve seen his turnaround coming; the guy’s too good to not contend.”

Kez has been serviceable to good all season. Serious playoff noise from him would be a pleasant but mild surprise.

Which drivers have no chance?

Look up at that odds board again. Everyone listed after Keselowski, write them off.

Yes, that includes Truex, who’s looked like he has one foot on the beach for much of the year. Especially of late. His retirement party at year’s end won’t likely double as a championship celebration — and no, stranger things haven’t happened at championship time. No champ has limped into the playoffs like this, and winless to boot, then flipped the switch.

Of the longer of the longshots, Ty Gibbs is the one who might be worth a few bucks at the teller window. I’ll say it again: Once he gets that first Cup win, expect others to follow and maybe in short order.

If the trophy gods pick September or early October to bestow their blessings on Gibbs, don’t be overly shocked.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR betting odds for playoffs: Kyle Larson yes, Martin Truex Jr. no