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The fact that Manchester City stormed the Emirates to take the Premier League lead comes as no surprise to anyone. Arsenal proved to be a worthy rival but conceded the lead in the final quarter of the match. What is most striking is that they did not end with more possession than their opponents.
At the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal not only challenged in the game, but also had much more of the ball. City were left with 36.4 percent, their second-lowest total of the Pep Guardiola era if reduced to matches in the top two competitions: the Premier League and the Champions League. To put that into context, they have only had the ball less than their opponents 14 times in 319 games.
In fact, it is their victory with the least possession in the Premier League, since the 34.66pc they recorded against Barcelona in the 2016/17 season, which resulted in a win, was in the Champions League.
Winning possession doesn’t really tell us much beyond how teams are stylistically configured to play. It’s simply a means to an end. But if there is one coach who flies the flag for using possession as a means of winning, it is Guardiola, a coach who, it should also be said, has evolved his style in many ways.
They knew how to handle the matchup against Arsenal. In the first half the Gunners pushed hard and City had spells of little contact with the ball. At the end of the first 45 minutes their possession was 40pc.
In the second half the control of the ball tended to even out between the two sides, but Jack Grealish‘s second and Erling Haaland‘s third goal allowed the Manchester side to double down as Arsenal pushed to try to get back into the game. That saw possession drop a little further to 36.4pc in the end.
If we look at the breakdown per 15-minute segment, there is only one stretch where City dominated the ball. After the break they accumulated 62pc. But the two subsequent City goals led to Arsenal almost completely relinquishing control. Pep‘s side went on to have only 30pc possession in the penultimate segment and 24pc (the lowest of the game) in the final segment.
In continuation, it is surprising how little time City spent with the ball in the final third of the pitch. A mere 11pc of possession time. Compared to Arsenal‘s 24pc.
Instead, what bolsters the argument that possession need not be synonymous with winning is the looking into expected goals. In the match, City generated slightly better chances than Arsenal. Their cumulative xG of 1.75 outweighed their opponents’ 1.62. In other words, a draw at one or two would have been fair, given the quality of the chances, but the reigning champions made much better use of it.
The match showed that City also knew how to take advantage without being the dominating team. But it is certainly intriguing that they managed to do it this way.
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