‘Uncertainty, problems & change – a compelling Manchester derby’

New Manchester United head coach Ruben Amorim has already developed a reputation for blunt speaking.

Asked to look ahead to his first Manchester derby in the wake of his side’s 2-1 comeback Europa League victory over Czech side Viktoria Plzen, Amorim got straight to the point.

“It should be two great teams fighting for the title,” the Portuguese said. “But it is not that at the moment. Both teams are struggling.”

Current form is part of what is making this particular meeting between City and United, between blue and red, feel a bit odd.

It is only just over five weeks since Amorim was preparing to face City in the Champions League as manager of former club Sporting.

The home side’s thrilling 4-1, Amorim-inspired victory that night was the third match in what has turned into an desperate run for defending champions City, who have won only once in their past 10 games, conceding 23 goals in the process.

Since Amorim replaced the sacked Erik ten Hag last month, United have taken four points from four Premier League games as they get used to a completely new system. Their last two league games ended in defeat by Arsenal and Nottingham Forest.

Only once since the 1991-92 season have neither United nor City managed to finish at least third in the English top flight. City are presently fourth. United are 13th.

This Mancunian confrontation feels like a throwback to the 1980s, when City and United were generally a considerable distance off being title winners, and the sub-plots on Sunday are fascinating.

What has gone wrong?

Manchester City have won just once since 26 October.

Listen to City boss Pep Guardiola and the reason for this stunning reversal of fortunes is all about the schedule.

It is the packed schedule, Guardiola believes, that has led to the injuries that have decimated his squad. The most grievous blow is undoubtedly the cruciate knee ligament damage suffered by Rodri.

The Ballon d’Or winner is one of what could be six senior City absences for the United game. Rico Lewis’ suspension means Pep might only have three defenders and could be forced to select Bernardo Silva or Matheus Nunes at full-back.

For now, he is playing the same players, some of whom, like Phil Foden and Erling Haaland, are not in the best form.

In late October, a day after City beat Southampton, United unluckily lost at West Ham.

It proved to be the end for Erik ten Hag, who was sacked the next day, while United’s sporting director Dan Ashworth subsequently paid the price for the drawn out decision-making behind the Dutchman’s exit, losing his job after five months in the role.

Rather than bring in a replacement who might fit the existing system, like Graham Potter or Gareth Southgate, United decided on radical action, drafting Amorim in mid-season from Sporting.

The Portuguese is attempting to implement a new formation, with hardly any training time. He has already warned it will be a long process.

The doubts at City

Guardiola is unrepentant about sticking by a team that is beginning to show signs of age.

Kyle Walker, racially abused in the wake of the 2-0 defeat by Juventus, and Germany midfielder Ilkay Gundogan, are both 34. Kevin de Bruyne, out of contract in the summer, is 33.

A reset is surely coming.

Not that a number of City’s recent signings inspire confidence. Kalvin Phillips cost £45m in 2022. The former Leeds midfielder was eventually loaned out to West Ham last season and is now at Ipswich. Nunes is yet to justify the £53m City paid Wolves for him in 2023.

City spent £85m on more recent arrivals Jeremy Doku and Savinho, and neither is having the sustained impact of the departed Riyad Mahrez, 33, who is now plying his trade in Saudi Arabia.

Much was made of the decision to sell Julian Alvarez in the summer but the Argentine wanted to go. The £81m sale to Atletico Madrid represented good business. The error was not bringing in a replacement.

And then there is Cole Palmer, whose shadow hangs over both sides of the Manchester divide. United, because they allowed a boyhood supporter to join City, and City because they failed to keep a young player who is turning into one of the biggest stars in English football following his switch to Chelsea.

All that still feels a minor problem compared to what Amorim has landed amongst at United. When you step back, it is little wonder the 39-year-old asked if he could delay his arrival until the end of the season.

Given the state they ended up in after letting Ralf Rangnick have an extended period as interim after Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was dismissed in 2021, the request was never going to be accepted.

And Amorim is having to work with a playing group built around Ten Hag’s vision.

Amad Diallo has featured extensively at wing-back and right wing but was a number 10 against Juventus. Skipper Bruno Fernandes has been a number 10 and, this week, a six.

Marcus Rashford scored the first goal of the Amorim reign as a centre-forward at Ipswich but his boss accepts it is not a role he is suited to and Rasmus Hojlund has since excelled in that spot.

Diogo Dalot has been used as left and right wing-back. Mason Mount had an excellent second-half cameo against Plzen after being introduced as a substitute.

No-one can be completely sure who will fill the crucial two central midfield berths this weekend.

Will the January window provide an answer?

As both clubs have released their 2023-24 financial accounts, we have a fairly good idea of what is possible in the transfer window. Put simply, with the Profit and Sustainability situation as it is, City, who are profitable, have money to spend, United, massively loss making, do not.

Guardiola distanced himself from talk of January signings on Friday, saying he “just wants the injured players back”. But new arrivals seem inevitable.

Central midfield seems an obvious starting point, for someone who can help plug the Rodri-sized gap but also play with him when he recovers. A raid for Newcastle’s Bruno Guimaraes is not out of the question but there are other options elsewhere in Europe if required.

For United, the situation is much less straightforward. Firstly, how many players does Amorim want in his squad and has he already decided if any are surplus to requirements?

Selling a home-grown player like Marcus Rashford would be good under Profit and Sustainability rules. Offloading an underperforming high earner like Antony might help Amorim to improve his squad.

But how realistic is it for either man to be sold, without United making a significant contribution through either a massively reduced fee, a wage subsidy, or both.

Co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe was not wrong last weekend when he said in an interview the club has become “mediocre”.

What does the future look like?

It is easy to feel City’s ship can be righted relatively easily.

“Without the injuries I don’t know the position we would be in but I can imagine,” said Guardiola. “I cannot prove it but everybody thinks we would be a better team.”

The City boss also insists he has no regrets about signing a two-year extension last month, after his side had just lost four successive games.

He said: “I would not be able to sleep – even worse than now – if I thought I was leaving when the club is in this situation. Impossible.

“They might sack me, that could happen. But leaving now, in this position? No chance.

“There are many things we have to do; go into the market at the right moment, maybe in winter or maybe the other one, to make the squad bigger, so they compete with each other to make the players better.

“Nothing is eternal. You have to be honest. If I am losing and losing and losing, more and more, in the end I say, ‘guys, you have to get someone else to fix this’.”

For United, the problems are far more complex. “We have a lot of issues,” is Amorim’s assessment. “They [City] are in a better place than us.”

United have been well beaten on their last three visits to Etihad Stadium and most neutrals will feel City have the extra quality.

City though are not without their worries. Guardiola’s long-time friend Txiki Begiristain is leaving in the summer, to be replaced by Sporting technical director Hugo Viana, bringing him into conflict with Amorim after years of working together.

More importantly, the end of their massive financial case is edging closer, which has the potential to create uncertainty in negotiations with transfer targets, even if City continue to insist they have done nothing wrong.

In the short term, if United were to win the derby, City will drop out of the top four.

United will remain in the bottom half whatever the result.

In title terms, it is a game of virtually no relevance compared to what has gone before. But given their respective wealth, illustrious pasts and future uncertainties, that is what makes it so compelling.