The final 2024 national basketball rankings are now live. With this, marks the graduation of the senior class from our high school rankings.
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Their four year journey through the national high school rankings began with relatively low expectations. Coming on the heels of a 2023 class that was widely considered to be a weak group of prospects, the 2024 class was also believed to be the the second half of a two year dip in talent.
Although 2023 never quite proved the doubters wrong, 2024 certainly has!
The addition of No. 1 Cooper Flagg (Duke signee) who reclassified from the 2025 class last summer, has undoubtedly helped lift the 2024 class. But, he hasn’t been the only newcomer to add to the overall talent as fellow Duke pledge No. 4 Khaman Maluach has come into the 2024 class via NBA Academy Africa while a third five-star prospect, No. 9 Jayden Quaintance (Arizona State) also reclassified up from the 2025 class.
Equally important to stabilizing the 2024 class has been the rapid improvements of its original members. No. 2 Ace Bailey (Rutgers signee) is the most glaring example of this, but he’s not alone. No. 3 Dylan Harper (Rutgers) and No. 5 VJ Edgecombe (Baylor) have also been able to exceed the early expectations put on them. Other players like No. 6 Tre Johnson (Texas commit) No. 8 Ian Jackson (North Carolina), No. 10 Liam McNeeley (Connecticut) and No. 12 Derik Queen (Maryland) have all progressed at a consistent rate which has allowed them to maintain their status among the top players in the the class from start to finish.
While the collective group has turned out better than initially expected, the process of formulating our final rankings forces us to considers how these players stand up next to each other.
For that comparison, we focused on two main variables as our forecasts of the future:
Who will be the best college players?
Who are the best long-term professional prospects?
These questions have different answers — especially in this class. But, they still determine where players slot as they transition from the high school game to college.
Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey Battle for No. 1
Answering these questions begin with Flagg and Bailey. The two prospects in contention for the class’ top spot.
My belief is that Flagg has the higher floor, both next year as a college freshman and long-term. He’s going to be a winning and highly versatile two-way player and is one of the early favorites to be a top pick in the 2025 NBA draft. Is he an offensive alpha at the highest level? That’s the part that is still to be determined and could ultimately be the key variable in forecasting his upside.
As for Bailey, he’s improved at such a rapid rate. In the process, he’s shown flashes of true stardom this year with his combination of wing size, athleticism and tough shot-making ability. As a result, he could actually have the highest upside in the class if everything goes right for him. However, he also has a wider range of possible outcomes than a player like Flagg. Bailey will need to learn to pick his spots more efficiently while simultaneously adapting to a lot more structure at the college level than he’s seen up to this point.
Harper, who will join Bailey next year in a historic Rutgers recruiting class, used the post-season events to regain his status in 2024’s top-3. He’s trending towards being a jumbo lead-guard with size, strength, length and feel for the game. He’ll likely be the best freshman guard in the country next year. But because he isn’t a dynamic athlete, his shooting has to develop into a translatable weapon to unlock his full potential.
As for the rest of the class, expect to see players like McNeeley and Queen be among college basketball’s best freshmen next season. Johnson and No. 7 Jalil Bethea (Miami signee) should also be ready to contribute next season. They’ll have the opportunity to be two of the best freshmen scorers.
Edgecombe should have a chance to make an immediate impact, as well. But, it’s his long-term ceiling that has scouts the most optimistic. Among this group of high ceiling, incoming freshmen that may require a little extra patience are the likes of Maluach, Quaintance and even No. 11 Drake Powell (North Carolina commit).
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