Cavs or Magic? Scouting Celtics’ potential second-round opponents originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Cleveland Cavaliers couldn’t close out the Orlando Magic in Game 6 on Friday night in a series seemed destined to go seven games given the way the home team had dominated through the first five games of the first-round matchup.
The winner of the series will advance to meet the top-seeded Boston Celtics in the East semifinals. So who should Boston desire to see next round?
With Kristaps Porzingis expected to be sidelined by a calf injury in Round 2, both the Cavaliers and Magic have frontcourt talent that will challenge Boston. The Celtics would have a decided advantage in postseason experience versus two teams with younger cores.
The Celtics went 2-1 against the Cavaliers this season, winning a home-and-home in Boston in December before watching Cleveland snap an 11-game Celtics winning streak up there in March. That was a particularly infuriating night in which the Cavaliers were playing without both Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, and Dean Wade scored 20 fourth-quarter points (including a put-back dunk late) to lift the Cavs to victory.
Boston went 2-1 against the Magic this season, dropping a game in Orlando in late November before posting two double-digit wins in Boston as part of another home-and-home in December.
Pick your pleasure: The Magic owned the third-best defense in basketball this season but don’t have a lot of offensive firepower, finishing 22nd in the NBA in offensive rating (nearly 10 points behind the record-setting Celtics). The Cavaliers have more offensive firepower and ranked seventh in defensive rating with help from a strong back line. (Mobley’s blocked shot at the end of Game 4 put them up 3-2 in the series.)
The biggest difference in any potential matchup seems to boil down to this: The Cavaliers have a certified superstar in Mitchell, and while his uncertain future hovers over this Cleveland run, he’s proven on the big stage he can singlehandedly dominate a playoff series. Orlando’s Paolo Banchero is a superstar-in-the-making and has been excellent in this series (24.8 points per game) but the young Magic still have to prove themselves on this stage.
The Celtics offered praise for both teams in the aftermath of their Game 5 win over the Heat. Boston is well aware of how physical the Magic can be and the Wagner brothers always add a layer of chaos to the matchup. The Mitchell-Jaylen Brown “rivalry” was a fun storyline inside the bubble. (“Bruh won’t leave me alone.”)
Making a choice
Forced to choose, we’d probably lean towards the Magic being the better option for Boston. We’ll tread cautiously here given the way that Orlando has found motivation in perceived slights from NBC Sports Boston personnel (Right, Eddie House?) but Orlando simply doesn’t have quite as much playoff experience as some of the core members of the Cavaliers.
Now, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown didn’t have a whole lot of playoff experience when they delivered the Celtics to the doorstep of the NBA Finals in 2018, so lack of playoff experience isn’t enough to just write off a team.
Orlando’s inconsistent offense would be its biggest challenge against a Celtics team that routinely puts up big numbers. The Magic averaged 84.5 points per game while falling into an 0-2 hole against Cleveland. They’ve been better since, including averaging a more robust 116.5 points per game in Orlando and crossing triple digits in Game 5 in Cleveland. But Boston should feel confident in their ability to defend the Magic.
The Cavaliers? There’s a couple of potential prickly issues:
1. Caught in a spider web
Mitchell shredded just about every defender the Celtics threw at him over two games during the regular season (though Tatum held up well). A look at Boston’s top defenders vs. Mitchell this season:
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That’s 44 points on 18-of-31 shooting against Boston’s top defensive options. We love the idea of Brown, who put together an excellent defensive resume this season, embracing that challenge in a potential Round 2 matchup. But Mitchell has proven on the playoff stage that he can tip a game with his scoring.
The Celtics had far more success corralling Darius Garland. A look at those most common matchup numbers over three games:
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2. The Strus revenge game?
Having dispatched the ghost of Caleb Martin, the Celtics would now face another familiar face in Max Strus. The Celtics waived Strus as a final camp cut in 2019 — keeping Javonte Green instead — and Strus has been on a revenge tour ever since.
Despite being a career 31.9 percent 3-point shooter in the playoffs, Strus shot 41.8 percent in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals as a member of the Heat while making 23 of 55 attempts beyond the arc against Boston. That included making a trio of 3-pointers as Miami won Game 1 in Boston. Strus was +40 in his court time over those first three games as Miami built a 3-0 lead.
Mitchell and Garland demand so much attention that Strus is an X-factor of sorts that the Celtics must keep tabs on. Especially given the motivation boost he seems to get seeing green.
3. Mobley’s impact around the basket
Mobley’s game-saving block in Game 4 was a reminder of how impactful he can be around the basket. Franz Wagner seemed to have a step on Mobley attacking the basket late but the big man still lunged for a left-handed swat of a layup attempt that preserved a two-point lead.
For the postseason, Magic players are shooting 4 percent below expected output when defended by Mobley, per NBA tracking. Mobley is defending 17.8 shots per game and opponents are shooting an eye-popping 9.7 percent lower than expected on shots inside six feet (53.8 percent).
If Jarrett Allen gets healthy from a rib injury, the Cavaliers have some big-man options that will cause the Celtics some headaches, especially without Porzingis available as a weapon.
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